DREAM 3 Draws Near

Posted May 9, 2008 by admin

dream mma japan belts
DREAM Tournament belts. Photo courtesy FEG / Monty DiPietro.

This weekend’s DREAM 3 draws closer with a few twists and turns that deserve mention.

  • Nagata is out. Katsuhiko Nagata is no longer visible on the official DREAM website’s page for this event, so he’s been pulled here on MMAPredictions.com, where he was shown to be fighting an unnamed opponent.
  • The Nick Diaz Saga. Early on Wednesday our friends at FiveOuncesofPain.com reported that Cesar Gracie had told the Sherdog Radio Network that Nick Diaz may indeed still be fighting on the DREAM 3 card. However later Gracie mentioned that Diaz would not be fighting on the card. Late Wednesday Sherdog reported that Gracie will indeed be fighting Katsuya Inoue.

Just a heads up for MMAPredictions folks who will make their predictions for the event: I have some family obligations and will be traveling from San Diego to North Carolina all weekend. I will be back online and updating the website as soon as possible. Please be patient!

- Caleb

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IFL Opts for New Ring Design, Announces Next Event

Posted May 8, 2008 by admin

ifl

Today the IFL held a conference call with the press to announce several changes to its initial plans for 2008. First and most visible will be a new fighting enclosure, called The Hex, which is a six-sided boxing ring. The Hex is being built by Throwdown in Las Vegas and fighters will have an opportunity to train on it before their next IFL fight.

According to IFL CEO Jay Larkin:

From a production and live event standpoint, the ring has proven to be the most fan and media friendly environment, as well as providing the safest possible environment for our athletes. The Hex allows for the larger surface that is utilized in other MMA organizations while still retaining the advantages we have enjoyed with the ring.

Also of note is that the next IFL event will be in August, despite the IFL having booked a Las Vegas venue for June 27th. No IFL fights will take place after the IFL’s next event, IFL New Blood, New Battles on May 16th at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut until August. Fights for the August show will be announced in June.

Larkin addressed whether the IFL has been for sale by saying, “everything is for sale… Microsoft is for sale, the hot dog cart outside our office is for sale… We remain open to offers that make sense for the company.”

Another theme in the conversation was that of cross promotion. Larkin and IFL Director of Fight Operations Bas Rutten pointed out that IFL fighters Rory Markham and Mark Miller will be taking part in Adrenaline MMA’s upcoming debut show in June. Larkin stressed that the IFL is always open to cross promote with anyone, including the UFC although he said he does not see interest from the UFC in the matter.

Larkin stated that he had had conversations with EliteXC president Gary Shaw about loaning Jay Hieron to EliteXC and was ready to do so but Hieron had an upcoming fight obligation with the IFL at the time.

- Caleb

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Watch Out Combat - Live Brazilian MMA PPV This Saturday

Posted by admin

Watch Out Combat broadcasts eleven fights from Rio de Janeiro this Saturday for just $9, so if you have an itch to catch live MMA, this may be your fix. You can buy the fights and check out the card’s line up here.

Do not confuse this event with the recent Rio Heroes, which is a vale-tudo promotion. Watch Out Combat uses normal mixed martial arts rules. In fact, several fighters from Rio Heroes will be fighting MMA on Saturday’s event, which starts at 5pm Eastern, 2pm Pacific, and 9pm in Europe.

Flavio Alvaro, and Andre Santos, veterans from Fabio Gurgel’s MTL, a Brazilian team-based MMA promotion which held several events in 2007, will be fighting as well.

- Caleb

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Fabricio “Morango” Camoes Out of IFL Fight

Posted May 3, 2008 by admin

morango fabricio camoesFabricio “Morango” Camoes has badly broken a toe in preparation for his fight against Jim Miller and will not be fighting on the May 16th IFL New Blood New Battles.

The news was revealed by Morango’s training partner Xande Ribeiro yesterday during a visit to the University of Jiu-Jitsu by MMAPredictions. UNIJJ is run by Xande and his brother Saulo Ribeiro. Xande related that a stray kick to sparring partner and UFC fighter Diego Sanchez’s elbow during a training session resulted in two separate breaks to Morango’s second toe and that the fight is indeed not a possibility for Camoes anymore.

No news yet from the IFL on who will replace Morango to fight Miller, who is coming off a victory over IFL staple Bart Palaszewski.

- Caleb

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DREAM to Air on HDNet

Posted May 2, 2008 by admin

hdnet ceo andrew simonQuietly discussed for the past few weeks, HDNet yesterday formally announced that they will be airing six fight cards from DREAM, FEG’s newest mixed martial arts endeavor. The first two events from the Japanese MMA promotion, DREAM 1 and DREAM 2 have already taken place and will be rebroadcasted on HDNet at the following times:

  • DREAM 1: Friday, May 2 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
  • DREAM 2: Saturday, May 3 at 10:30 p.m. ET.

DREAM 3, FEG’s next event, is right around the corner and will be broadcast live on on HDNet on Sunday, May 11 at 3:00 a.m. ET with two encore presentations - one scheduled for Sunday, May 11 at 4:00 p.m. ET and Saturday, May 17 at 9:30 p.m. ET. Four fights have been formally announced on the DREAM website, and are already posted here on MMAPredictions for you to make your picks.

Andrew Simon, the HDNet Fights CEO (pictured), stated:

“We’re thrilled to announce this blockbuster deal with FEG. MMA fans have been emailing and posting on message boards non-stop, wanting to see the DREAM Grand Prix. Once again, HDNet is THE place to go to catch all of the action. This latest deal continues our commitment to making HDNet the ‘Home of MMA’ with more MMA events than any other television network.”

So far DREAM has been up and down in how predictable its fight cards are. The average predictor on MMAPredictions.com correctly predicted 70% of the fight outcomes on the DREAM 1 card. However DREAM 2 was less predictable, with the average predictor here on the site correctly guessing 36% of the fight card’s fight outcomes.

Among the four fights currently announced, DREAM 3 contains the return of Philadelphia slugger Eddie Alvarez, who will take on Joachim Hansen.

As always, we will announce every addition or modification to fight card changes on its dedicated MMA Fight Card Changes & Updates thread in the MMA Predictions forum!

- Caleb

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Kaitlin Young on MMAPredictions Radio

Posted May 1, 2008 by admin

MMAPredictions RadioThis installment of MMAPredictions Radio features a conversation with Kaitlin Young, the Minnesotan fighter who will face Gina Carano on May 31 in New Jersey at the CBS Saturday Night Fights. Young is currently a kinesiology major at the University of Minnesota and this will be her sixth professional mixed martial arts fight.

kaitlin young
Kaitlin Young trains her submission skills in preparation for her fight with Gina Carano. Photo courtesy Rick Noyes.

Kaitlin’s response when asked how her family and friends felt when she began fighting MMA:

Almost everybody’s cool with it now. My friends have always been super cool, as well as my siblings and cousins, but my aunts and my mom still sometimes give me the, “Why do you want to do this?” thing, although lately there hasn’t been much resistance about it!

Click here to listen to the 12 minute mp3!

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- Caleb

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Brothers in MMA

Posted April 30, 2008 by admin

cole miller micah miller
Brothers Micah and Cole Miller. Image courtesy Micah Miller.

Oh, Brother, Where Art Thou?

By Eric Davidson

Sibling rivalry is something everyone is familiar with. Whether it was a brother or sister growing up, or even a close friend where a competitive edge was always present in all activities, the urge to defeat and compete is present in everyone. At the same time, however, when it is someone so close there is a degree of care that goes with the territory.

This is not something lost on MMA. Unusually, you won’t find any of the brotherly pairs from mixed martial arts competing with each other. In some of the pairs of brothers examined for this piece, there seems to be one brother that stands out from the other. For example; Clay Guida and Jason Guida. Clay is well known in the UFC for his seemingly unending stamina and powerful hammerfists, as well as animal like aggression. A strong competitor, his brother Jason is less-known, although sporting a long span of fights dating back to 2003. However, his last fight was in March of 2007 in Costa Rica and nothing since then. With a 17-15 record, one can only speculate the reasons for his hiatus.

Then there are the up and coming Miller brothers. Some of you may remember Cole Miller from The Ultimate Fighter 5; the individual who lost to Joe Lauzon in the quarterfinals. Since then he has amassed an impressive record of 13-3, with his most recent loss during UFC – Fight Night 12 in late January. His lesser known younger brother Micah has also gathered a stand out record of 9-1 with his last fight being at WEC 32 in mid February. Because they are in two different organizations and weight classes, a match between the two (if they would even agree) is unlikely.

From the new to the old, the Shamrock brothers are two of the most well known fighters in MMA history, often facing off against the Gracie’s for the title of “the First Family of MMA.” Although not blood related and being separated by an eight year age difference, these two men paved the way for many followers to come. Ken Shamrock and Frank Shamrock both worked at the “Lion’s Den,” a training facility that Frank was later fired from after Ken’s departure. Although each of the Shamrock’s is well known, they seemed to be better known by different generations of MMA fans.

Everyone who is a fan of MMA knows Matt Serra, but less known is his younger brother Nick Serra. Matt, who was the first American to receive a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu from Renzo Gracie, is one of the more iconic sportsmen in the UFC today. His fighting skills along with his Tommy DeVito-like attitude and (recently shown against George Saint-Pierre) good degree of class have cemented his spot in MMA history. Nick is also a very accomplished grappler, earning wins and placing in numerous tournaments (including the Grappler’s Quest Absolute Division Championship and IFF No Holds Barred Heavyweight Division) thanks to being the second American to earn his black belt from Renzo Gracie. He and his brother split their time between fights running their family owned studio.

Two brothers that have competed against each other in an official arena are Matt Hughes and Mark Hughes. These twin brothers squared off in a wrestling match while in high school with Mark leaving the victor. Despite this, Mark left MMA altogether with a record of 6-2, deciding it just wasn’t for him. Matt, however, has become one of the most recognizable faces of the UFC, and considered by some to be the greatest welterweight of all time. Matt’s career as a fighter has earned him a 41-6 record, while Matt continued his American dream by returning home to his family farm and running the Hughes Construction company.

Perhaps the two best known brothers in MMA today are Nick Diaz and Nate Diaz. Nick, who is Nate’s older brother by two years, has earned a strong reputation in the UFC, EliteXC, IFC, and the WEC for his impressive ground work and decent stand up game. He recently earned his black belt in May of 2007 from Cesar Gracie. Following in his brother’s footsteps but in a lighter weight class, Nate Diaz has made a very strong debut as one of the more deadly opponents when it comes to grappling. Nate won The Ultimate Fighter 5 beating Manny Gamburyan in the final round. With a 9-2 record, both of these brothers are forces to be reckoned with, and it doesn’t appear if either is going to be stepping out of the spotlight for some time to come.

It could be a question of nature versus nurture as to what influences someone to engage in martial arts or combative competition, and results in pairs of brothers like these in MMA. Perhaps there is some sort of genetic predisposition to thrive in the conflict that can only be illicited by fighting and confrontation. Or perhaps a way to prove something to one’s self; facing that fear that screams to run away, but seeing the path laid before you by an older sibling. Either way, if there is one thing MMA events are known for, it’s their amount of blood in the sport.

Breakdown of DREAM 2

Posted April 29, 2008 by admin

MMAPredictions Breakdown

Results are in from today’s DREAM 2: Olympia, which took place in Japan earlier today. If you’d like to listen to this rundown instead of read it, here’s the 3 minute mp3 version.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

  • 278 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
  • No one of those 278 predicted every fight correctly. TheReed and SteveBJJ came the closest, both incorrectly predicting the outcome of just one fight .
  • The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 8 fights on MMAPredictions was 36.2% making this card very unpredictable. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is in the low fifties.

jacare souza ian murphy dream
Jacare Souza sinks the rear naked choke on Ian Murphy. Photo courtesy Monty DiPietro / FEG.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie for this category (again, sigh)! Ninety-eight percent of users knew that Jacare and Kazushi Sakuraba would win their respective fights against Ian Murphy and Andrew Nakahara. Neither Murphy nor Nakahara had even fought in a pro MMA event before in their lives, so these outcomes were shockers to few. Both of these fights were won by submission.

Most surprising fight outcome: Minowaman loss by unanimous decision to Taiei Kin. Only 9% of predictors knew that Kin had it in him to defeat the much more experienced Ikuhisa Minowa.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is the International Fight League’s event IFL: New Blood New Battles which takes place on May 16th in Connecticut.

- Caleb

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DREAM 2 Only Hours Away, Make Your Predictions Now

Posted April 28, 2008 by admin

dream japanese mma

Dream 2: Olympia takes place in just a matter of hours now in Japan. I get notes from people after fight cards overseas saying:

Oh Caleb I forgot that the fights started so much earlier overseas. I only put ten seconds into my original predictions and then I forgot to come back before the fights and update them, can you erase my picks?

No! Get your picks in on time!

- Caleb

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Understanding MMA After 66 Events on MMAPredictions.com

Posted by admin

mixed martial arts mma

Warning - do not read this post unless you want to better understand how predictable mixed martial arts events are. If you are curious about MMA and how easy (or not) it is to correctly pick fight outcomes, come along with me intrepid reader.

So, for those who are new to MMAPredictions.com, here’s what you need to know: we allow users to make their selections of fight outcomes on MMA events, allowing them to determine how well they know MMA. What that also does is provide data on whether an individual MMA event was easy to predict or not because we can look at how folks did on average with their picks.

For example, if the average MMAPredictions user correctly predicts the outcomes of 90% of the fights on the upcoming UFC 84, we can say, “Mister MMA Promoter, you’re not doing a good job of putting together events because they’re way too predictable”.

What if the opposite happens? What if the average person correctly predicts 10% of the fights on a card correctly? If it turns out that MMA fighters deliver upsets that often, what the heck is it that we are watching anyway?

Okay, to continue this mental exercise, where do we draw the line? At what point do we say, “that fight card was too predictable”, or “that MMA event was too full of surprises and made no sense”?

I think we would all agree that if everyone gets 90% of a card correct, that’s too predictable. At that point it’s almost scripted. But is an average prediction accuracy of 80% for, say Tuesday’s DREAM 2 acceptable? That’s pretty boring too. But you get the idea.

Honestly, I don’t know where to draw the line. But I thought that we could take a look backwards at the events we’ve held to date on MMAPredictions.com and see if there’s anything to learn there.

This blue chart depicts where all 66 of the fight cards we’ve had to date fall in terms of predictability. Thankfully, we have had no events yet where the average MMAPredictions.com user got more than 90% of the card correct. We have also had no events where the average person got less than 19% of the card right.

Here are a few things I come away with when I look at the graph to the left:

  • Caleb needs a real graphing software because doing that in Photoshop took forever and still doesn’t look very good.
  • Thirty-one events were unpredictable (that is, the average prediction accuracy is below 50%) and thirty-three were predictable (that is, the average prediction accuracy is above 50%). The fact that it’s so close is comforting, and jives with the information on our all time site stats, which shows that historically across all fight cards, an average user will likely get just a little over 50% of the fight card correct.
  • If an MMA fight card is going to be unpredictable, it’s probably going to be just a tad unpredictable, falling into the 40-49% range. It’s pretty rare for a fight card to be less predictable than that, as only 8 of 66 events have been less predictable.
  • If an MMA fight card is going to be predictable, it’s pretty safe to say that it will have an average prediction accuracy that falls between 51% and 69%, a wider distribution.

I think the cool thing about the graph above is that we have a better idea of what to expect moving forward. While it doesn’t tell us any absolute truths (does such a thing even exist?), we can look at a particular MMA fight card and say “Hey whoa that’s weird!” with a little more confidence.

My question for you is, do you care if an event is unpredictable? I think we agree that too predictable is bad, but is there such a thing as too unpredictable? Is it okay, or even a good thing if a card is so full of upsets that the average prediction accuracy is somewhere between zero and 20%? Please let me know your thoughts by posting in this thread in the forum!

- Caleb

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