UFC 78 Preview: Back at the Beginning… Again.
by John Philapavage
UFC gets stuff done. It just might take them a little while. They got MMA back on Pay-Per-View. The got on national cable TV. They bought their biggest competitor. They acquired most of the name talent throughout the world. They have a very profitable business model with mainstream appeal resulting in ESPN NEWS coverage and Sports Illustrated covers. So if Dana White and the Fertittas say they’ll get into New York City and Madison Square Garden, I believe they will. It just might take them a while. And I think they’ll be patient. After all, Zuffa’s first pass at gaining a foothold in the great NYC market was six and a half years ago just after acquiring the nearly dead Ultimate Fighting Championships. So as I look forward to UFC 78: Validation in Newark, New Jersey I also look back to the June 29, 2001 UFC 32 show from East Rutherford, New Jersey.
The show back in 2001 was almost a backdrop to the announcement of In Demand PPV clearance for UFC. It had been since 1997 that they’d received such good news, and Dana White was reciting this as proof of things to come from UFC’s new ownership. Zuffa had bought the company in January, had their first event in February, and were planning to take their product to Nevada for PPV in September. Of course, they weren’t even officially sanctioned in Nevada on the day of this show.
Today, we have so many PPVs and Live TV specials often I hear fans complain there might be too much UFC product out there. In fact, on some weeks (and months, if December is any indication) UFC programming can take up the bulk of programing on Spike TV. 40-60 hours in a month. We have 12 PPV events in a year, with a specialness that’s worn thin.
The latest carries with it only Micheal Bisping vs Rashad Evans, with Karo Parysian underneath. UFC 32 had Tito Ortiz vs Elvis Sinosic, BJ Penn in the semi-main, and a few people you may have heard of along the way. Tony DeSouza, Ricco Rodriguez, Andrei Arlovski, Yuki Kondo, Pat Miletich, Shonie Carter, and Josh Barnett. In fairness, many of these names weren’t known and certainly weren’t as big as they are now. UFC 78 on Saturday has the chance to be a card we look back on and glance over names that are now major figures in MMA or even mainstream sports.
We’ll begin at the low end of the show. The dark matches. In 2001, the two dark matches played only to an announced crowd of 11, 492, but closer to 10,000 fans. The first did make air, only carried at the time on dish provider DirecTV, and the second fight did not. BJ Penn camp member Tony DeSouza quickly beat Paul Rodriguez. DeSouza would later become known to the mainstream fan as a tough assistant coach on UFC’s Ultimate Fighter show. In the second fight – the one that never aired – future world champion Ricco Rodriguez debuted with a hard fought victory. His opponent? Andrei Arlovski. If Ricco gets his act together and Arlovski re-signs, they might make a few more bucks with a rematch in 2008.
This Saturday’s four dark matches will be seen by closer to 14,000-15,000 fans live, but many more via UFCs On Demand function, with the chance of getting on the main show in front of about a million people (I figure 400,000 buys on PPV, we’ll say 2 people a home makes 800,000, and fill in another 200,000 for sports bars).
Akihiro Gono vs Tamdan McCrory
The veteran entertainer and the young “Barn Cat”. Gono’s been around for a while now, and a Japanese veteran to me is always a stubborn vet. I’ve seen a piece of a McCrory fight, but I’ve seen several of Gono’s. Gono is more notable for his entrance, while McCrory is notable for being too young to to have seen Gono’s first fight. I joke, but the kid is celebrating his 21st birthday this week. Let’s cut to the meat of this. Gono is cutting weight for maybe the first time, and he’s never been in the cage, but he and countryman Ryo Chonan are making the jump down to 170 together. What’s more important is Team Quest is their place of choice to train in America. To me that means no trouble with the weight cut or the jinx of the octagon/cage. McCrory is gonna be more tenacious then most guys with a only a year and a half in, but Gono’s been around too long to fall for submissions or tricks. McCrory has a punchers chance, but he’s going home a loser in this one. Flat pick: Gono one way or the other, and the kid gets to get drunk for his 21st at an afterparty. NEXT…
Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio
We stay in the “dark” for this lightweight clash. The outcome is all on Aurelio here. He controls his destiny, sort of like a big time college football program needing to win out (LSU anyone?). I’m not saying Aurelio is top five, or even top 10 at this point, but only the records are similar. The fighter levels aren’t.
All of Aurelio’s losses were by decision. If he doesn’t go to decision, he tends to submit his opponent. He’s got two points on his record to think about. He submitted Takanori Gomi a few years back, but then lost to him when he went to decision. A split decision. In fact, since 2004 he’s lost four times by decision, but only once was it unanimous. His last fight was a loss to Clay Guida in August, but it was again a loss via close split decision. Of Caudillo’s eight losses, six have been by submission. He’s got a puncher’s chance, but this will go to the ground and he will be submitted, if not in the first, then in the second round. Aurelio by submission.
Still in our dark matches, I think win, lose, or draw, the world of MMA needs more articulate men who carry themselves like Joe Lauzon. Rich Franklin is cut from a similar mold and has found success being relatively soft spoken and humble. Rampage Jackson and Tito Ortiz are good for the sport in their own exuberant way, but Lauzon will find a seat at that table.
With that out of the way, I’ll make this simple. Lauzon finishes fights. He submitted 12 of his 15 opponents. His glamour K.O.: always undersized Jens Pulver. Jason Reinhardt is 18-0, but not even hardcores have heard of half the people he’s beaten. He’s solid on the ground from all accounts, but Lauzon’s been training with BJ Penn full time. He was only part time when he shocked Penn-rival Jens Pulver. Since then the jiu-jitsu specialist has only gained more experience in bigger matches. Reinhardt has submission wins to his credit, but does anyone think he’ll get his hooks in Lauzon?
Joe Lauzon has all the tools and potential to be a force in the cluttered, but exciting, lightweight division. Lauzon might be the MMA “Thinking Man’s” answer to the casual fan’s Roger Huerta. This one will go to the ground quickly with Lauzon putting on a submission grappling and jiu-jitsu clinic like his mentor did in Jersey in 2001. Lauzon by submission in the first round.
33-year-old Chris Lytle has been everywhere from Jeff Osborne’s Hook N’ Shoot to Pancrase and back. He’s been in the WEC, the IFC, and a little place called the UFC. He’s had a lot of big matches, and he’s lost most of them, many by decision. Thiago Alves is a young guy with good training around him, but half the fights of journeyman Lytle. He’s 12-3, but two of the three losses were by submission.
This is one of those simple-complex equations. Like Aurelio, when Lytle wins, he wins by submission. When he loses, thirteen times out of fourteen, it’s by decision. So if the young guy commits too early he’s likely to get caught in a submission, but if the veteran commits too much on the ground the younger Alves has a decision to make. Be first, or be patient? See, by the numbers this one is easy. Lytle submits him or he loses a decision. But the real story is the chess match in the second and third rounds, and who has to make a move and when. And the moves aren’t knights and rooks; they’re body parts. This one is a fascinating toss up. I’d like to see the young guy get a quality win by decision or more surprisingly a third round TKO. Alves in a fight only a true fan could love.
The Opener
In the “more things change…” department, Randy Couture was also the heavyweight champion in 2001, Tito was in the main event then and would have been here as well, and both times they were gearing up for big shows in Las Vegas to follow.
Opening the live show in 2001 was Vladimir Matyushenko beating Yuki Kondo in a dull opener that saw Tank Abbott stealing the fans attention while mugging at ringside. Abbott wasn’t even under UFC contract at the time and most likely was comped the seat as well. This opener may not have worked out, but I’ve got an idea of what will.
Frank Edgar vs. Spencer Fisher
Please start the show with this fight. If you know me, you know I’m a proponent of starting every show with a hot fast-paced lightweight opener. This one might even beat out Edgar’s gem with Tyson Griffin from February. Fisher has the edge in experience and I’d argue the edge in training camp preparation. Edgar will have the hometown crowd as he’s from Toms River, New Jersey. But this is a beautiful pairing of Fisher’s superior stand up against Edgar’s ground control and submission skill. I’ve heard secondary arguments that Fisher’s stand up and Edgar from the top on the ground cancel each other out. In this theory, Edgar’s standup beats Fisher’s ground game. I disagree. I think Fisher’s ground game is the key to him winning the fight because I believe he’ll stay busy if he’s on the bottom and, barring a possible knock out blow from Edgar, win the exchanges standing. This is gonna be awesome. It’s unfair to pick, but I’ll go with Frankie Edgar by decision.
The Mid-Card
At the 2001 New Jersey event, MMA legend Pat Miletich beat the flashy Shonie Carter in the second round. The match did receive some boos for going to the ground, reminding us that things have evolved for the good. Conversely, Josh Barnett got over with the crowd by winning on the ground, via arm bar, over the giant Semmy Schiltt. The talented and intense Barnett was covered in his own blood, licking it as he celebrated. At the time Dave Meltzer commented this might be a negative in the media if the story or visual caught on. It didn’t, but the bloodsport tag stuck, while poor Barnett hasn’t with UFC brass. He’s still looking for a way in to the UFC, or a permanent home elsewhere, whichever comes first.
Like Barnett, “The Heat”, Karo Parisyan is at a cross roads. He needs to make an impact and make it now if he’s going to get a title shot in 2008. A shot he earned in name over a year ago.
On the negative side Parisyan has had to train for three separate opponents for this fight. On the plus side, they were all similar, and he started early. Chonan, as noted earlier in the preview, is cutting down from 185. Another note of interest is the fact this will be Hendo-Couture once removed. The former good friends turned cold associates will each have a small hand in training these fighters, but only because Chonan is at the Team Quest facility and Parisyan at Xtreme Couture. I don’t believe either is expected to be a cornerman.
Comes down like this. I think Parisyan will control and dominate this fight. Chonan is well traveled, and you’ll get that in the hype, but he isn’t better then Karo. Parisyan will have the advantage on the ground, and Chonan will have it standing. Both advantages will be slight. The difference will be Karo’s explosiveness. He’ll need it. He’ll need to be flashy and solid all in one against a typically tough Japanese fighter. Karo rarely finishes fights, and he won’t here either. He’s had one submission win in four years, and that was from strikes. Add to that that Ryo Chonan has only been submitted once in competition, and it starts to look a lot like Karo’s last decision win against a gutsy Josh Burkman. Ultimately, I’ve got Karo Parisyan winning by decision and still being locked out of the Welterweight title picture.
This is Lytle vs Alves magnified. I saw Doerksen stuff Paulo Filho a few times before he got killed a few months back, and filed him under “irrelevant”. I had no idea the guy was such a journeyman’s journeyman. The guy’s the definition of a middler in my book, but he does hold a victory over Ed Herman. Herman, the TUF 3 competitor, has shown signs of break out talent but has mostly under-achieved.
We’ll keep it simple. Herman has a small submission steak going, but he can’t and won’t submit Doerksen. He should instead try to keep it standing for fear Joe D. could ground and pound him or possibly submit him. Herman’s best bet is to keep it standing for the first round, start to come in more on Doerksen in round two, and try to knock him out when he tires. The story here is all about Herman’s redemption inside the Octagon. He either figures out Doerksen and makes it to the next stage of his career, or he’ll be on his way to underachieving average hell that is the middleweight wasteland. I’ll take Doerksen by submission because I see Herman as a guy who just can’t put all the pieces together against a “gatekeeper”.
Thiago Silva vs. Houston Alexander
Here’s your banger highlight reel match. Alexander’s been on a roll and this is his next test. A lot of us think he’ll fall flat on his face put up against a well rounded fighter, but Silva isn’t pulling Alexander’s card Saturday. Silva is a young fighter out of Brasil’s Chute Boxe camp. Nine of his eleven wins are by K.O., which tells me this guy isn’t gonna have the patience or composure standing to keep Alexander missing and moving until the second or third round. Houston Alexander wants to engage on the feet and throw bombs, and while I hope Silva will take him down and make him show some ground work, I fear he’ll trade with Houston early in the fight and lose. Alexander moves up the card with another first round K.O.
The Main Event
At the Continental Airlines Arena in 2001, a debuting BJ Penn stopped (recently arrested in 2007) Din Thomas in 2:29 of the first round. In the Main Event, Tito Ortiz, posterboy of the early Zuffa-led UFC years, stopped Elvis Sinosic in the first round.
Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans
I like Bisping, I really do. I’m much more of a fan of his then of Rashad Evans on a personal level. But that doesn’t dictate or rule my logic. This is as simple as the camps they prepare in. Rashad lives in the great team atmosphere of Greg Jackson’s in New Mexico. He’s surrounded by a coach coming into his prime, and fighters like Georges St. Pierre, Joey Villasenor, and Keith Jardine. Bisping trains much of the time in England, with no top level training partners. When he comes to the states, he resides in Big Bear with Rampage Jackson and Chieck Kongo. It’s a situation that only benefits a savvy Rampage, in my mind.
Bisping will come in smaller than Evans, and while a talented fighter, he could not handle the takedown of Hamill, or Hamill’s average stand up. He won’t be able to defend Rashad’s takedown, or his ground and pound. He may be able to shake lose and stand again, but I’m not sure his still developing stand up is even better then Rashad’s at this point. Evans isn’t a noted striker, but he damn near killed Sean Salmon with a high kick. Sometimes it’s a good thing mentally and for a fighter’s development to lose, and Bisping might get the gift of reassessment Saturday from Evans. He needs to move to a top camp, work 80% on the ground, and make the next step by moving down to middleweight. Evans overwhelms him on the ground midway through the second round.
Aftermath
The 2001 show was the first of the big time pay-per-view presentations that were also aimed at catching the casual fan’s eye. It’s a UFC trademark still kept to this day. Though it’s been said in the last year or so that the New Jersey event was actually heavily papered (free tickets, anyone?) it did act as a springboard for the future. Heck, even celebrities like Dennis Rodman, Carmen Electra (their spokeswoman at the time), and Fred Durst made it out. I’ll go out on a limb with two more predictions. They won’t need to give away any free tickets this time around, and they might have one or two bigger celebrities (does Jamie Pressley travel?).
Many of the wins on that 2001 show were quick, decisive, and impressively showcased guys for matchups down the road. UFC 78 has that same potential. While Penn and Tito came out of that show as stars, names like Parisyan, Chonan, Edgar, Fisher, Bisping, and Evans have a chance to catch everyone’s eye and step up on this event. With Marc Ratner now on UFC’s payroll – something they didn’t have in ’01 – perhaps we’ll see a few of these fighters at Madison Square Garden yet.
John Philapavage writes for MMAOpinion.com. We’re very excited that he will be contributing here at MMAPredictions.com and look forward to reading his work.
Want text messages of MMA fight results sent to your cell phone for free? Register now!
