For years, New Year’s Eve has been a staple of the Japanese fight scene. Starting at the beginning of this century, and surviving to this day as a TV and/or PPV entity, K-1 and Pride (among other odd assortments) entertained and thrilled viewers while competing with the biggest concert of the year in Japan for viewers.
Last year, with Pride losing TV and the fight world transferring power to the U.S. market, UFC tried to establish a similar show. Not New Year’s Eve, but the Eve of New Years. The Saturday before the event. UFC 66, anchored by Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz, yielded over a million buys and a huge gate. That show was the exclamation on a huge ’06 for the UFC, and it was thought to be the beginning of a dominant ’07.
What we got was a mixed bag. A strong year, but not nearly what ’06 brought us. In the ring the fighting styles and training methods continue to evolve. ’08 looks to be another strong year, but perhaps not on the level of ’06 and closer to ’07.
This year’s card, again featuring Chuck Liddell, also features the dynamic Georges St. Pierre, a late replacement for Matt Serra. The event promises to be exciting and strong in the ring, maybe the best show since September or August.
Last year’s undercard featured Yushin Okami, Gabriel Gonzaga, Thiago Alves, and a fighter who made it back for this undercard, Tony DeSouza. This undercard looks just a fascinating as last years did, and I’m sure we’ll get one or two matches worthy of being passed around the ‘net Sunday morning. Five fights are listed, some with names many of you know, and some names foreign to yours truly before research. I’m going to keep the undercard preview and predictions shorter, as I don’t want to get you bogged down with details of fights you won’t see. I’ll try to stay to the point until main card time.
UNDERCARD:
James Irvin vs. Luis Cane
James Irvin is 12-4. Most wins are by KO, but it seems everyone has two submission wins early in their career, and Irvin is no different. He’s a Light Heavyweight out of California who lost to Thiago Silva in his last fight in the UFC. He injured his knee and had to quit while still in the first round, to give you a better indication. His fight before that was a win against Hector Ramirez, so Irvin is definitely tough.
Luis Cane is a Brazilian who started BJJ with the express purpose of moving into MMA. He’s 26-years-old and sports an impressive 7-0 record. I saw his last fight in September against James Damian Stelly where he knocked Stelly out with a knee. He’s not afraid to bang, and six of his seven fights have ended with him knocking his opponent out.
I’ll cut to the chase. I’ve seen one fight from Cane and three of Irvin’s, so I have very little to go on, but I liked Cane’s poise. Irvin has more experience and the tougher opponents on paper, but Cane just looks like he has that pedigree of a fighter from an excellent camp. As much as I like a guy who takes a cage dive (Irvin went through a cage against Bobby Southworth, the second straight card I’m previewing w/ a cage dive you can see on YouTube), I’ve got to go with Cane. I think this will be a physical match, and I’d think it ends with strikes. Cane via ref stoppage in the second round.
Doug Evans vs. Mark Bocek
I love Canadians, so I love Mark Bocek. They seem to be a well thought out country of people who speak confidently but not arrogantly, and have wonderful accents. Everything I’ve seen of Bocek tells me the Toronto, Canada BBJ practitioner is no different. I was shocked to see Bocek only has a 4-1 record, as I’ve felt like I’ve been aware of Bocek longer then since the spring. Bocek is known more for his one loss, to Frankie Edgar by strikes at UFC 73: Stacked, then his four victories at smaller events. He’s a strong submission specialist, having won three of his fights this way. The guy brings even more energy to the lightweight division, if that’s possible.
Doug Evans is a 5-1 fighter out of Anchorage, Alaska. He fights for AK Wolfpack, and his only loss was a great showing against Roger Huerta at the TUF 5 Finale.
Funny story. There is more then one Doug Evans listed in the Fight Finder, and not having the official record of “Doug Evans”, which every I could find, I trusted the Sherdog events section which linked me to a 3-10 Doug Evans. I’m sad to say the real Doug Evans makes my job (and by extension Mark Bocek’s job) a lot tougher, because the first Evans I found would have been an easy submission win for Bocek. This Doug Evans is a much better match up for fans.
Bocek is so fun to watch on the ground, and even though Evans gave Huerta trouble on the ground (I saw the guy and still I didn’t remember his name!), I see Bocek as a great submission guy. That is to say, I think Huerta is more talented and will go further in scope, I think Bocek might actual fare better on the ground. I think Evans would serve his purpose best to hit and run early, and then use his physical strength to clinch and knee Bocek. I was more impressed with Evans’ stand up, and I think him staying up is his shot. Even with a better Evans, I’ll go Bocek in the Second Round by Submission.
Dean Lister vs. Jordan Radev
Dean Lister means submissions. That doesn’t mean he always wins, but if he is winning, it’ll probably involve a submission. A 9-5 record, 8 of those wins were via Submission. The other was by decision. Think he tried a lot of submission in that match? Lister comes by way of K.O.T.C. and has appeared several times for Pride. He hasn’t fought since early this year, when he lost to Nathan Marquardt by unanimous decision.
The best way to beat Lister is by decision. If you can take him to the decision Lister doesn’t fair well. All five losses are by submission.
Jordan Radev is an 11-2 wrestler last seen losing by knockout to Drew McFedries. I’m struggling to remember the specifics of the fight, but I do remember that Radev was very short for his weight and he wanted to engage on the ground. He’ll get that with Lister, though I’m not sure that’s the best idea. In Radev’s favor are five decision wins to only one loss. I have a feeling if this fight goes to a decision you might have trouble staying awake.
I’d expect both men to go to the ground, because I think both have shown that is where they feel most comfortable. I don’t see any knock outs or huge blows being scored standing, and if there are, the person hit will take it to the ground. Either Radev pounds out Lister, or he gets caught in a submission. Worst case, it goes the distance, historically favoring Radev. I’ll take experience for this pick. Lister by submission in the second round.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Nate Mohr
Manny Gamburyan is best known as the undersized little engine that could from Ultimate Fighter 5: Penn vs. Pulver. If Manny reads that, I’ll have to change my address, but the guy was an undersized bull who willed himself to win fights. He’s 5-2, losing only to Sean Sherk almost seven years ago and on the TUF finale in June to Nate Diaz. He had a good shot at winning the Diaz fight, but severely injured his shoulder when shooting in. He’s very strong on the ground, understanding not only submissions, but how to keep control of the fight. Dangerous in any fight going to a decision. Lack of experience and being injury prone seem to be his biggest detractors.
Nate Mohr is 8-4, with a wrestling background and a good team around him (Team Curran). His year has consisted of a win against Cody Shipp, a loss to Kurt Pelligrino, and a decision win vs. Luke Caudillo. Nate is very susceptible to submissions, as all four losses were the result of submissions.
Should be an excellent match up. Manny likes going to the ground, and I’d assume Mohr will force the action there as well. I can’t speak for Mohr, but Manny has decent stand up. It will be interesting to see if Manny can trap Mohr in a submission, something he’ll be working for from the opening minute, and if not, if he’s strong enough to control Mohr’s body from the top. Mohr looks to be the better striker on paper, so perhaps he’ll try to sprawl and keep it standing. It’s Mohr’s striking vs. Manny’s ability to control and submit from the ground. My heart says Manny, and my brain thinks Mohr. Perhaps it all cancels itself out. Manny Gamburyan by decision.
Tony DeSouza vs. Roan Carneiro
DeSouza was an assistant coach on BJ Penn’s team during the Ultimate Fighter over the spring. He’s a BJJ guy who has extensive experience in Brazil. Tony is 10-3, with six submission wins. All three losses where KOs.
Roan Carneiro is 11-6, last losing to Jon Fitch on a Fight Night in June. Before that, he beat another fighter on this card, Rich Clementi, by decision. Overall, Carneiro either submits his opponent (6 sub. Victories) or wins by decision (5 victories).
There’s a first time for everything, but it doesn’t look like Carneiro will be able to knock DeSouza out. It does look this could be an artful display of BJJ. Both are submission specialists. When you get like this there are tons of point-counterpoint strategies for the ground, and I honestly don’t feel qualified to give scenarios here. I think the less said the better. Both fighters are great and I’ll just take the one I think has the most positive momentum right now. This one will be really great if you get a chance to see it. Carneiro wins.
MAIN CARD:
Last year Chuck Liddell’s test of Tito Ortiz was the most bought fight in mixed martial arts history. It would prove to be one of two high points in the last two years where mixed martial arts and UFC seemed on the cusp of mainstream acceptance (the other being Liddell-Jackson).
This year’s card, while just as solid on the pay-per-view side, seems to lack that push. MMA seems to be sliding back down the acceptance poll, or maybe better put, the cool fad meter. That’s no reason not to enjoy this great card, but I don’t expect the atmosphere of last year’s show. The NFL’s decision to put the New England Patriot’s game on free network TV will hurt the business end, but the quality of the show should be better in some ways then Liddell-Ortiz, Jardine-Griffin, or McDonald-Leben.
Eddie Sanchez vs. Soa Palalei
It seems every show there is always debate as to early PPV match-ups and why wasn’t (insert fighter or fight from undercard here) put in this spot. I’d suspect Sanchez-Palelei will be that debate with many people, and it’s mine too. The Tony DeSouza vs. Roan Carneiro has more intrigue and experience in my eyes, and I’m also fascinated by the plight/development of Manny Gamburyan. I can argue more people know DeSouza or Gamburyan from TV, but it’s fruitless. Regardless, it won’t really make a difference to the buys for the show, so I’ll shut up and preview Sanchez vs. Palalei.
Sanchez is best known as Mirko Cro Cop’s debut punching bag, but that is terribly unfair to him. Sanchez is actually 7-1, with his only loss coming in the aforementioned fight. He’s a product of the California MMA scene, being part of North County Fight Club and having come through the King of the Cage and Total Combat promotions. He has K.O. power, at least on the lower levels, with five of his seven wins coming via knock out. He rebounded from his K.O. at the hands of Cro Cop to beat Colin Robinson by strikes in the second round at UFC 72.
His opponent, Soa Palalei, holds a similar 8-1 record, with six knock outs. Palalei also has two submission wins, like Sanchez, and also rebounded from his first defeat to K.O. an opponent (in this case it was Shaun Vanof in K.O.T.C.). The difference being Palalei took a long lay off after being submitted in PRIDE – three years!
Very little can be taken from Palelei’s only fight in three years. Vanof was having his first pro fight, and his only fight to date. It took place in Perth, Australia, Soa’s hometown, ended in the first round, and happened less then three months ago. Palelei is a larger heavyweight who is near the top of the 265 cap off. He somewhat resembles Mark Hunt in his mid section, which may be as deceptive as Hunt’s in terms of stamina and movement. A lot of question marks here.
Sanchez is a very capable guy, and I’d imagine he’s got a very good shot at looking good knocking off the larger Palalei. The match will stay standing at first, if past history is any indication, and both men won’t be lost on the ground. That said, I see this as another stepping stone for the young Sanchez, who wasn’t ready for the level of striker and experience that Cro Cop brought in February. I suspect he’s training at a higher level than Palalei at the moment, and theoretically is more accustom to the changes within MMA in the last several years. I think Sanchez is talented enough to overcome the size difference, though Palalei’s best chance would be beating this kid bad on the ground from the top – assuming he can hold the quicker Sanchez down. I don’t see this being on the ground early though, as I said, and the more I think about it I look at this as a great test of Sanchez’s tactical striking and ability to create movement in the Octagon. He needs to stay away from the larger Palelei and essential not get caught. How he plays the chess match will answer the question as to his mental/emotional maturity at this stage. A good fight for Sanchez.
Finally, I’m not sure what level of comfort Palelei could feel not only in the cage itself (though his last fight was in a cage), but on this big a stage, and so soon. Three years off after a choke out in PRIDE is either a maturation process of his own, or shows a guy that couldn’t hack it to begin with. Sanchez by strikes in the second round.
Rich Clementi vs. Melvin Guillard
Melvin Guillard. Melvin, oh Melvin. It seems like on every UFC card we have a story of a young guy who’s been around enough to have some real experience, shows a lot of potential and the question is not in his talent, but in his mental focus. Are we ever going to see the potential of Melvin Guillard realized? Where is his head at after a suspension for cocaine? As always, we shall see.
The facts are these. Guillard stands at 20-6-2, a big and cut 155 pounder. He’s got knock out power within the division with 13 wins by K.O. But He’s susceptible to submissions, as five of his six losses come via being submitted. He is solid if the fight goes to the cards, as he’s 4-1 with decisions. He trains with Team Punishment, which I’m a fan of as Tito Ortiz is a better coach than a fighter these days. Guillard has wins over Gabe Ruediger, Marcus Davis, and Rob Emerson. His name losses were to Josh Neer and Joe Stevenson, the last one being very quickly. He also has a No Contest with Roger Huerta.
Rich “No Love” Clementi is a veteran of mixed martial arts. He’s been fighting professionally since 1999 and has built a 29-12-1 journeyman style record. He’s fought for an alphabet soup of promotions, from K-1 to ZST, and more recently UFC, IFO, and SCF. He’s fought six times in the last thirteen months, so he’s staying very active. Clementi is on a three fight win streak since losing a decision to Roan Carneiro at a UFC Fight Night by unanimous decision. He’s also lost to Din Thomas and Caol Uno in the last two years, but holds six wins in that time span.
Clementi is going to be a lot of trouble for Guillard. He likes taking it to the ground, where he’s got 13 submission wins. It’s true he’s also lost five on the ground, but anyone playing with fire gets burned sometimes. He’s better than Guillard is on the ground and he won’t be in much trouble of being subbed himself if he takes the fight to the ground. Guillard better have his sprawl working well Saturday night, as he’s got a puncher’s chance, and he probably knows that. It’s not that he’s completely overmatched, but the veteran Clementi knows how to take opponents down, and Guillard couldn’t stop Stevenson on his initial takedowns, getting caught in a guillotine choke as he was forced to slump down.
Even standing I don’t think Melvin will K.O. Clementi, but he can outlast him. Guillard has the energy (insert jokes here) to go the distance and possibly out strike Clementi. Guillard, as mentioned, has found decisions favorable, while Clementi is 6-6.
My prediction: Another bad night for Guillard. I can see him rocking Clementi early until “No Love” gets inside on him. Once Guillard is on the ground I think it will only be a matter of time. Clementi by submission in the first.
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Lyoto Machida
While I expect the bulk of fans to wonder who these two foreign born fighters are, perhaps no fight on the card is more interesting to MMA hardcore fans than this one.
Known from his surprising matches in the dying days of PRIDE, Sokoudjou is this month’s Houston Alexander. It just so happens most of the fans don’t know it yet, nor will they find out if he fails to do to Machida what he did to Ricardo Arona and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Sokoudjou comes in at a somewhat tested 4-1, if you can believe that. He bulldozed Arona and Nogueira both in the first round with a beautiful sprawl and powerful punches. He’s fast as all hell and he’s a very compact light heavyweight. That said, if you saw his only loss, in WEC to Glover Teixeira a year ago, you would wonder if the two fighters were the same guy. He’s got holes with his boxing and stand up game that may have been mended, but will certainly be examined by the pressure of Lyoto Machida.
Machida, whose record is a perfect 11-0, will make Sokoudjou chase him standing. It’s doubtful Sokoudjou will be able to bulldoze Machida like he has to others simply because Machida is a tactical fighter who won’t challenge Sokoudjou’s power standing. He’ll pick his spots and make Sokoudjou work. In fact, of the eleven fights Machida has under his belt, seven were won by decision. That means we could see what kind of stamina Sokoudjou has, but we might also see how a frustrated Sokoudjou reacts.
Sokoudjou, if he can catch Machida, will probably try to take him down. Machida usually smothers opponents on the ground, but Sokoudjou is not only too powerful, but works out of the Team Quest. He’s had Dan Henderson laying on him for weeks now. He should be confident in his guard in theory, but we’ll see about practice. Another question is if he’ll fall prey to rookie mistakes while on the ground as Machida tries for submissions. Sokoudjou himself has never submitted anyone in a professional fight, but then, most of his fights haven’t really had time to develop. He’s a question mark on the ground at this point, which is not good for him here.
The whole fight is in so many ways a test for the young monster, Sokoudjou. Machida isn’t an exciting fighter to watch, but he’s a very talented fighter. He’ll be there with a minute left in the third round, and many are wondering if Sokoudjou will be able to say the same. It would not be a shock to see Machida submit Sokoudjou, though I think that’s unlikely. It would also not be a shock to see Machida frustrate and slow the big man, eventually winning a decision. That seems more likely. I think, for the purposes of this article, we’ll believe in the Mike Tyson-like rise of Sokoudjou. I’ll say Sokoudjou, by strikes in the first round, capturing the imaginations of the U.S. audience.
Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva
This fight, five years in the making, has not been pushed to the level it deserves. “Oh, what could have been” is what comes to mind. I am one of those fans who has been waiting forever for this fight. In 2001 Wanderlei Silva captured my attention when he beat Sakuraba quickly and headed towards a Tokyo Dome rematch. Liddell, in 2002, became my other favorite fighter when I saw him kick the head off Renato “Babalu” Sobral on the undercard of Shamrock-Ortiz. I started kickboxing because of these two guys! No one has to convince me this will be an exciting fight.
A quick check of the stats before we get more current. Both guys have a lot of experience and are primarily stand up fighters who throw for knock outs. The Iceman holds a 20-5 record. Shockingly, Liddell actually has won a fight with a submission. 1999 against Kenneth Williams. I don’t think Silva needs to fear Liddell’s rear naked choke though.
The Axe Murderer comes in at 31-7-1. To be fair, Wanderlei has won four matches by submission, the last coming in January of 2000. I think Chuck is safe.
This is expected to be a stand up war of epic proportions. Commonly it has long been thought this fight will end with Liddell’s hand raised. Silva comes in and throws heavy, while Liddell is an excellent counter-puncher. Sounds simple enough.
I’m not completely sold on these guys running in, throwing leather, and Silva getting caught in the first round. Both guys will eat punches, and the punches will be heavy, but I see Silva being smarter than that. For starters, Silva has been working with Randy Couture in Las Vegas preparing for this fight. Couture is known as the best big match game planner out there in the fight game presently. He’s lost his last two fights to Cro Cop by way of high kick and Dan Henderson while trading punches .I don’t think he’s instructing a smarter and older Silva to throw caution to the wind.
Silva is also coming in small then he has in years, which may make him hesitant to throw with Liddell. I don’t want to underestimate the confidence of fighters coming off losses or coming in smaller then usual. Where I do see openings for “Wand” are low kicks, which Liddell seemed unable or unwilling to defend against Jardine in September, and the idea that perhaps someone will finally take the Iceman down. I know it’s tough to hold Chuck down, but Wanderlei does have some experience at holding an opponent and punishing him.
For Chuck Liddell, he knows Silva is susceptible to being knocked out. Sure, Silva has a tough chin, but Liddell has heavy hands. Regardless, he will follow up if he drops Silva and doesn’t finish him. Liddell only needs to keep the fight standing to have the theoretical advantage. I would like to point out before we end here that you can’t counterpunch a knock out blow, and Quinton Jackson certainly proved that to Liddell.
I’m hoping to see a heck of a fight with two guys that don’t drop from one punch. I’m hopeful Silva comes in with a game plan. He already has the disadvantage of the Octagon being new, against a guy that stalks and cuts off angles when he is on the attack. I’ve already had my pick with the heart, not with the head moment, so I’m going Liddell via TKO in the first round.
Matt Hughes vs. Georges St. Pierre (for interim welterweight title)
Previously Hughes vs Matt Serra, GSP has stepped in to improve the quality of our main event with Serra injured.
Matt Hughes has had a storied career in the Octagon. He’s 41-5 with 18 submissions, having made the transition from amateur wrestling to MMA. Add to that he’s KO/TKOed 14 opponents, and taken it to the distance for nine wins. Somehow, I don’t think he’s going five rounds with GSP Saturday.
Georges St. Pierre is considered one of, if not the, best complete fighters anywhere in the world. He’s 14-2 with a good balance between KOs, submissions, and decision wins. His one submission loss is behind him, an avenged loss to his opponent Saturday, Hughes.
Let’s put the records in the past. This fight centers on a focused GSP taking a fight late against the talented, but overmatched, Hughes. GSP has the tools to beat Hughes badly. I can see him take Hughes apart like the last fight, piece by piece. He’s the better puncher, has better kicks, is a better striker overall, and he’s only had another year to get better at wrestling on the ground. He made Josh Koscheck look bad on the ground earlier in the year.
I love to play devil’s advocate, but realistically GSP should not lose. St. Pierre should dominate. Then again, he was supposed to dominate against Matt Serra too. The key to Hughes having a chance is to make this fight go all five rounds. To do that, a lot of time will be spent on the ground, and that’s time Hughes wrestling will have to be at its best. He should have better wind, having trained longer for the fight. Will he? It’s doubtful we’ll find out.
St. Pierre, on his way to Montreal for a unification match, wins in the second round by strikes.
John Philapavage writes regularly for MMAOpinion.com and FightOpinion.com as an opinion columnist. He’s followed MMA since 2001. We’re very excited that he contributes here at MMAPredictions.com and look forward to reading more of his work.
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I know it was Dickens who said, “It was the best of times… and the worst of times” or something to that effect. I am going to borrow the idea and apply it to M-1 Global’s Yarennoka event which was held in Japan. In this case, it was the most predictable of fight cards, and the least predictable of fight cards.
