MMAPredictions

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WEC 31 is one of the most exciting WEC cards in its history, and by far the most stacked card since Zuffa bought the promotion and moved it to Las Vegas. Jens Pulver makes his long-awaited debut in what has become a heated match with up-and-comer Cub Swanson. Will Pulver thrive with the drop to 145 or is this a passing of the torch?

Also on the show, three title matches. Urijah Faber has a match for the 145 title, Paulo Filho has a tough test, and Lightweight titleholder Doug Marshall could very well lose. It’s a lot to dissect, with nine matches on the show, and I looked long and hard for information, footage, and outside analysis to formulate my preview and predictions. Enjoy.

PRELIMS

Brian Bowles vs. Marcos Galvao

We start the show with a few dark matches and up and coming, little known, fighters. Brian Bowles is 27 years old and fights out of Athens, Georgia. He carries a 3-0 record with two KOs and one submission. He beat Charlie Valencia (also on the card) by rear naked choke on the June WEC card. Prior to that he fought at something called Wild Bill’s fight Night in Georgia. I hope he got paid.

Marcos “Louro” Galvao has a little more experience. He’s a BJJ fighter with a 6-1 record. The problem may be that all six wins are decisions. The one loss was a decision as well. He’s a 26-year-old Brazilian with Shooto and Fury Fighting Championships experience.

I don’t know too much about these guys. I was able to find some footage of Galvao, and he’s good on the ground, but didn’t try to finish in what I could find. Still, he has a good résumé, the opposite of Brian Bowles, who’s best win might be Charlie Valencia, which doesn’t seem to say much. I’ll take Galvao.

Ian McCall vs. Charlie Valencia

Charlie Valencia is so good he’s got his own team, Valencia Freestyle fighting. Well, I gotta find out something for these popcorn dark matches, right? He touts an 8-3 and a veteran of the King of the Cage promotion. He appeared on WEC’s September show losing to another prelim fighter, Brian Bowles. He’s also been beaten up by Cub Swanson and Urijah Faber. Four of his wins are against two men he beat twice. Bobby Gamboa and David Velasquez. Odd.

Ian McCall doesn’t even have a picture I could find, let alone footage to watch. The 23 year old is 6-0 with four KOs, a submission, and a decision win. He fights for Team Oyama and hails from California. Looking at his record, it looks like he’s upped his opponent and challenge every time out, which I like. His last fight was his first in WEC after bouncing around promotions. He won a decision over tough Coty Wheeler.

This fight looks like it was booked to give Ian McCall a good test against an opponent who seems to have faced slightly better talent. I’m basing this on booking, as there is little information I could find on either man on the Internet. I’ll take Ian McCall.

Alex Karalexis vs. Ed Ratcliff

Karalexis, depending how long the casual fan stuck with The Ultimate Fighter, would be the most well known name on the show. If you stuck around and you’re a casual fan, you’ve heard of that Pulver guy. Alex is surprising only 9-2, having only six fights since the first live broadcast of MMA in North America, TUF Finale where he beat Josh Rafferty. He then lost to Kenny Florian and Jason Von Flue, ending his UFC stay. He’s since found his way into the WEC and won 3 in a row and four overall since the Von Flue loss.

You may not have heard of his opponent, Ed “8mm” Ratcliff unless you saw the May WEC show or just really love the 170 division – obsessively. Ratcliff is 5-0 and has never had to go to the third round in a professional fight. He’s a knockout artist with four K.O.s in five fights and one submission. Before WEC he was all his fights were in the Total Combat promotion.

This is a crossroads fight for Karalexis. It probably won’t be his last, but he’s gotta continue the winning streak and stop this young kid. Alex has been knocked out once, and he’ll obviously want to avoid that here. Ratcliff’s KO power may be the myth of numbers, as the last two are listed as a KO for a knee injury and another for a corner stoppage between rounds. Considering Karalexis has a majority of his wins by KO, this out is likely to end up in a knock out. My guess is Karalexis gives the kid a learning experience. Amazing a guy this talented was one of the runts of that first TUF class! Karalexis by KO in second round.

Bryan Baker vs. Eric Schambari

Twenty-two year old Bryan Baker fights for Team Wildman Vale Tudo out of California. He’s a middleweight and carries a 5-0 record with 3 K.O.s and 2 submissions. Four of the five were finished in the first three rounds. His big win was his last, against TUF alum Jesse Forbes.

Eric Schambari fights for Marc Laimon’s Cobra Kai Jiu-Jitsu in Las Vegas. He sports a 7-0 record with 1 KO, 3 submission wins, and three decision victories. I guess you could say he’s well rounded. Schambari, nearing 30, is older then Baker. His last two fights were in the WEC, and the one before that was in Art of War.

Footage was almost non-existent of these two on the net, limited to a short Bryan Baker training video. Knowing very little about either of the fighters, my educated guess is to go with Schambari on training camp, coach, and slight experience edge. My guess would be on the ground, but this is more of an informational piece then a solid pick. Schambari wins by submission.

MAIN

John Alessio vs. Todd Moore

I don’t have confirmation that this will start the main card, or even appear on it, but considering John Alessio is in the match, I think if it doesn’t go long it will make it in at some point even if they schedule it as a dark match. Alessio takes the nickname “The Natural” and trains at the gym of another Natural, Randy Couture of Xtreme Couture. He’s 20-10, and lately his fights seem to end in either submissions or decisions. He’s been submitted once in the last two years, while he’s submitted four opponents. As for the decisions, Alessio is 1-2 when it goes to the judge’s cards, but he won his last fight by decision over Marcelo Brito.

Todd Moore is less experienced, but comes in with a perfect 9-0 record. This is his first fight in a nationally-known promotion. He fights out of Houston, Texas, and he’s won his last four fights via verbal submission, two TKOs, and a split decision. If that seems less than impressive, his last three opponents are a combined 15-12.

This will be a huge test for the 170 pounder Moore. He’s can’t overpower Alessio, and he probably can’t knock him out. Allessio has only lost by decision or submission. Moore only holds one submission victory. Frankly, this is a kid with a great record who’s going to get his ass handed to him within the first five minutes. Alessio has 8 KOs and 7 submissions, so take your pick. I won’t, except to say Alessio in the first.

Cub Swanson vs. Jens Pulver

If you don’t know Jens Pulver, this might be your first MMA show. Jens, moving here from the UFC after losing to BJ Penn and dropping down to 145, is celebrating his 33rd birthday. He’s 21-8-1 and continues to train with the famed Miletich Fighting Systems. He has deceptive power as 13 of his wins are by K.O. He holds decision wins over Dennis Hallman, BJ Penn, and Caol Uno. Of course, he’s lost to a who’s who as well.

Cub Swanson, other then sporting a great sports name in more ways then one, comes in nine years Pulver’s junior. He has an 11-1 record, his only professional loss a rear naked choke in his first fight. His wins are varied, as the last four were decision, submission, K.O., and T.K.O. He handed Micah Miller his only loss and beat well respected Tommy Lee before that.

While Swanson’s career only goes back to mid-2004, Pulver’s career started in 1999. He was in the UFC five years before Swanson went professional, so the experience, as if this is a surprise, goes to Pulver. Pulver also has the edge in quality of opponents, even in losing to many of them. He does hold a victory long ago over Joe Stevenson, who fights his other chief rival, BJ Penn, for the vacant Lightweight Title next month at UFC 80. Cub has a great chance as he’s rolled through eleven straight while Pulver has lost his last two fights and three of the last five.

I see Pulver being most susceptible to a submission, of which Swanson has five. Of course, it’s easier said then done, and both are quick as a hiccup. Swanson had better watch out for the knock out on his feet, because Pulver was knocking them out at 155 and this is his 145 debut. A small crowd should take the nerves out of this one for Swanson, but Pulver seems very focused after pulling out of this one in September.

I think this match represents a passing of the torch, as Pulver won’t have the chance to K.O. Swanson standing, and Swanson might catch Pulver on the ground. It will be a heck of a fight, but by the third round I think Pulver will be gassed and the younger Swanson will sink in a choke. I’m not sure what kind, but take your pick – rear naked, triangle, or guillotine. Outside shot at decision, and if that happens, all bets are off, because I think they’ll split the first two rounds. Swanson by Choke in the 3rd.

Doug Marshall (c) vs. Ariel Gandulla (for light heavyweight title)

Doug Marshall, the junior counterpart of Quinton Jackson in Zuffa’s two promotion stable, comes in with a 6-2 record, four wins by knockout and two by submission. The Rhino has been knocked out twice himself and is relatively inexperienced for a World Extreme Cagefighting champion. So far in his young career he’s won his first four fights, lost the next two, and won the last two. He’s got a two fight win streak, both by K.O. He’s faced good, but not marquee talent.

Luckily for Marshall his opponent is even less experienced then he is. Ariel “The Panther” Gandulla challenges for the Light Heavyweight Title with a 4-0 professional record with one No Contest earlier this year. His opponents only have a combined 12-7 record, and in his first WEC fight in May he won a decision over Gary Padilla, one of his first true tests. Before that came the no contest with Tom Lawlor (They fell out of the cage in the clinch a minute into the fight. Quite the sight.)

It’s tough to call because neither man is terribly experienced or what even Joe Rogan would call “World Class” at this point in their careers. Marshall looks to come in bigger, but Gandulla trains with the more respected team – American Top Team in Florida. I think Marshall’s stand up would best be called capable, but not great. The Cuban-born Gandulla is faster and crisper. He looks like the better boxer, so Marshall can and will slam him to the mat. I have heard Marshall’s cardio is suspect but I didn’t see it in the two fights I’ve seen.

Whenever you have a pick’em situation I tend to side with the champ, and because I think Marshall has more experience and knock out power (standing and on the ground), I think this will roll along to either a boring decision for Marshall or a first round K.O. It’s that far apart, because either they come in and cancel each other out, or they slug it out. I just don’t see a submission on the ground as I’d bet Marshall lays on top and ground and pounds. Believe me, this is one of the more evenly matched fights on the main card, maybe the most, because Gandulla is no slouch on the ground, but I don’t think he’s technical or refined enough yet. I’ll take Marshall by K.O. in the first.

Paulo Filho (c) vs. Chael Sonnen (for middleweight title)

Brazilian Paulo Filho is someone I’ve been saying should be up in the UFC fighting Anderson Silva or Dan Henderson for the Middleweight title, but that’s another story. As it is, Filho stands as the WEC 185 title holder, with 15-0 record and a strong debut in the WEC versus Joe Doerksen. Though Filho is often categorized as a BJJ fighter, if you saw that Doerksen fight you know the man has ferocious standup. Filho’s been fighting pro since 2000 with extensive experience in Pride Bushido. He’s got wins over Akira Shoji (twice), Ryuta Sakurai, Ryo Chonan, Yuki Kondo, and his signature win would probably be Murilo “Ninja” Rua.

Chael Sonnen comes in at 19-8-1 with a background in wrestling. He trains up in Oregon with team quest, so he has Thierry Sokoudjou and Dan Henderson to throw him around. Filho will likely be a welcomed switch from those two bigger men, though Sonnen is not a master of submissions and Filho can submit people. Sonnen actually knocked out his last two opponents, though neither are what I’d call “names”. He has wins over Jason Miller, Manny Gambaryan, Jason Lambert, and more recently Trevor Prangley. Of course, the man has also lost to Prangley, Terry Martin, Renato Sobral, and Jeremy Horn (three times).

Filho has gone to seven decisions before, but he’s won them all. Sonnen is 9-1 with decisions. Judging by both men’s last three wins, a knock out and two submissions for Paulo and 2 K.O.s and 1 sub for Chael, this isn’t going to the judges.

Filho also has six submissions and two knockouts, so I’d expect him to try and end it on the ground if the first or second stand up volley doesn’t meet with great results. Sonnen wins more by strikes then submissions, though he’s been submitted himself five times. Paulo Filho seems most comfortable on the ground by the numbers, but it’s hard to tell if his last fight was an easier opponent or a rededication to stand up training. In my opinion Doerksen forced his hand, and he felt he had to stand with him. Also, I don’t think Doerksen is a total chump, just a good test for a man of Filho’s skill. I don’t know that Sonnen has better stand up then Doerksen, who recently stood and got jaw jacked by Ed Herman in the UFC.

Sonnen is nobody to sleep on. The guy doesn’t have a big name, but he should be more known to fans then he is right now. This is not an easy fight. In the end, rational thought is Filho finally submits Sonnen on the ground. I have no rationale for the way I see this going, but I see them trading, Filho taking him to the ground, some submission attempts, and then Filho winning via KO off a stand up and re-engage. How’s that for specific. Filho by strikes and a KO, standing and then on the ground if it’s not waved off, in the 2nd round.

Urijah Faber (c) vs. Jeff Curran (for featherweight title)

Urijah Faber. The posterboy of WEC with the surfer image and tan skin. He was on my Fight Magazine cover last month. Faber is 19-1, pretty evenly distributed wins between knockouts and submissions, with only two decisions. He has just one career loss, against well known UFC fighter Tyson Griffin. I don’t think Faber should be worried walking into the ring Wednesday night, as he’s strong and well sized at 145.

Jeff Curran comes in at 28-8-1 and a more natural 145 pounder. He’s primarily a BJJ artist with little knock out power. His wins are 2/3s submissions and 1/3 decisions. He also can blame 50% of his losses on decisions. A good bet: this one isn’t going to decision. Curran has been around since early 1998 professionally and has one Pride Bushido fight to his credit, though he lost via decision. The wily veteran quality does work in his favor as the fight goes on, though I’d look for Faber to try to end it early.

A common opponent is Charles “Krazy Horse” Bennett, who they fought within a few months of each other. The telling tale: both Faber and Curran submitted Krazyhorse in the first round, so nothing learned there. Urijah can brag he did it quicker, and he’s been beating people quick most of his career. His last 4 fights have ended in the first, and he hasn’t been to the third since his loss to Griffin over two years ago.

Here’s how I see this one. Faber can strike or go to the ground, and my guess is it gets to the latter after Curran can’t handle Faber’s stand up or Faber just decides to take him down. They’ll trade, but this won’t be a stand up war. Both men know the ground, and that’s where it’s going. Faber will have a good shot to tap Curran, who will be physically smaller and not be able to control the pace or where the fight is engaged. I don’t see this getting out of the second round, and the only reason I’m hesitant to say first round submission is Curran’s experience and reliance on Jiu Jitsu. People talk about a puncher’s chance, but I’d say Curran has a BJJ player’s chance of catching Faber. Other then that, Faber retains the title by Submission in the second in an impressive ring controlled performance.

John Philapavage writes regularly for MMAOpinion.com and FightOpinion.com as an opinion columnist. He’s followed MMA since 2001. We’re very excited that he will be contributing here at MMAPredictions.com and look forward to reading his work.

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