MMAPredictions

The Ultimate Fighting Championship revealed a last-minute change to this Saturday’s UFC 81: Breaking Point. Alan Belcher is sidelined “due to a severe case of bronchitis” according to the UFC’s Thomas Gerbasi. Belcher was scheduled to take on Renzo Gracie-trained Ricardo Almeida.

Rob Yundt, an Alaskan fighter with a record of 6-0 will take Belcher’s spot. All of Yundt’s fights have taken place in the Alaskan Fighting Championships.

- Caleb

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Ronaldo Souza, “Jacare”

I caught up with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza after a Brazilian jiu-jitsu seminar at Brandon Vera’s Alliance Training Center here in San Diego on Saturday. Jacare speaks almost no English, so he kindly suffered my Brazilian Portuguese, and we were able to manage the following interview. Enjoy.

MMAPredictions.com: Jacare, how did you start Brazilian jiu-jitsu? Was that in your hometown of Manaus?

Jacare: I live very close to the academy where I train, and my older brother trained there. I would pass by and see my brother training there until one day the instructor, Henrique Machado invited me to train. So I started to train there too. On the very first day I loved it, and I train there to this day in Manaus with Profesor Machado. It’s been twelve years now. I started there when I was 17 years old. I started training at an old age.

MMAPredictions.com: And when did you receive your black belt?

Jacare: It was in 2003 on the podium of the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world championships. I won the absolute weight class of brown belts, and I was given my black belt that moment on the podium.

MMAPredictions.com: Everyone knows that Brazilian jiu-jitsu is big in Rio and in Sao Paulo. Not many people mention Manaus as a hotbed of Brazilian jiu-jitsu activity, at least here in the United States. Could you talk a little bit about Brazilian jiu-jitsu in Manaus?

Jacare: Back in Manaus, practically everybody trains jiu-jitsu. I had to compete among 1,400 other tournament competitors to win the Amazonian jiu-jitsu championship. In my point of view, we are the best in the world at jiu-jitsu. If you analyze it, how many world champions have come from Manaus? Manaus produced world champions for three consecutive years. Xande Ribeiro is from Manaus. Saulo Ribeiro is from Manaus. I am from Manaus. Fredson Alves is from Manaus. Bibiano Fernandes is from Manaus. All of these guys were black belt world champions, both in their respective weight classes and in the absolute category. So in my book Manaus is number one for jiu-jitsu.

MMAPredictions.com: And could you describe a little bit about the city itself? As a whole we here in the United States don’t know a lot about the city.

Jacare: It’s a city with approximately 2 million people. It’s one of the bigger cities in the interior of Brazil. It’s a nice city. Leaving Manaus and going to Rio is not easy. You can leave Sao Paulo and get to Rio to compete pretty easily. It’s not that way from Manaus. If you want to get to Rio from Manaus, you have to pay a lot of money.

MMAPredictions.com: Can you describe what industry there is in Manaus, so we can get a better feel for where you are from? For example, Rio has tourism. But Manaus does not. What does Manaus have?

Jacare: Manaus has a lot of tourism. The city of Manaus is a city of tourism.

MMAPredictions.com: (laughs) I didn’t know!

Jacare: Many people like to visit Manaus because they’re visiting the Amazon. It has the jungle which everyone likes. It’s got the biggest river in the world both in depth and volume. The only thing Manaus doesn’t have going for it is its geographic location, because reaching it is very hard.

MMAPredictions.com: Everyone wants to know when you will be fighting MMA here in the United States again.

Jacare: That’s what I am here to find out.

MMAPredictions.com: So at the moment it is unknown.

Jacare: At the moment it is unknown.

MMAPredictions.com: And are you going to compete in the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world championships this year in Los Angeles?

Jacare: I would really like to compete, yes. But it depends on how things work out in MMA for me. If something comes along in MMA I will not be able to fight in the BJJ mundials, but if I have nothing solidified, I will fight in the mundials.

MMAPredictions.com: Which do you prefer, BJJ or MMA?

Jacare: I love jiu-jitsu. Right now I am training a lot of MMA but I never stop doing jiu-jitsu. However, I already won the absolute category the world championship several times, I have fought in eight consecutive world championships and won seven of them (at different belts). So, I am looking at different things for my life right now. I really like training MMA now.

MMAPredictions.com: They are different chapters of your life.

Jacare: Yes, different chapters.

MMAPredictions.com: There are many high level Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners attempting to cross over into MMA now. It is difficult for fighters like you of elite level in BJJ to find a contract that rewards that experience, yet at the same time one has to start somewhere, right?

Jacare: It is difficult for people to find a good event that pays well. But it is good for an event to have a fighter that already has a name and has people who are excited to watch them compete. It pays a return for the event to have someone like that fighting. So I believe that the really good fighters from any discipline, whether BJJ, or wrestling, or greco, that the promoters have to take that into consideration when they make offers to those fighters.

MMAPredictions.com: Do you have anything you would like to say to folks out there before I let you go?

Jacare: Yes of course. I would like to say that jiu-jitsu is my passion, I want to thank all of those out there who have supported and helped me. I would also like to say that the United States has a lot of great BJJ instructors like Xande and Saulo Ribeiro. For me, well, Xande is the best in the world. Saulo is a great athlete whose jiu-jitsu used to be directed at winning, but now his game is very pretty to watch. Before it was pretty to watch but now much more so. He has gotten better. There’s no need to go to Brazil to train. San Diego has Saulo, Xande, Carlos Valente…

MMAPredictions.com: …Rodrigo Medeiros, Fabio Santos…

Jacare: Yes, all those guys, so all the best in the world are here, why would you go to Rio? You do not need to anymore.

MMAPredictions.com: That is why I like living here (laughs). Thank you very, very much Jacare.

Jacare: Thank you.

I saw Jacare again last night when he instructed class at Saulo and Xande Ribeiro’s University of Jiu-Jitsu. In his brand new San Diego Chargers jersey, he came up to me after class and kindly told me he remembered that Manaus also has Honda factories, Samsung factories, and Harley Davidson factories.

- Caleb

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It is no secret. The UFC’s policy toward websites that focus on mixed martial arts is not a very open one. From the websites at the top of the heap of online mixed martial arts coverage like Sherdog, to rising stars like MMAJunkie and FiveOuncesofPain, and all the rest who work tirelessly to provide the latest news on your favorite sport, none are given the considerations that other MMA promotions offer them.

What is it that MMA websites receive from other promotions? It is common for companies like EliteXC, the IFL, Strikeforce, and HDNet Fights to allow a certain number of journalists to attend events free of charge in return for expected mention in whatever media the journalist works in. Usually press releases are also sent directly via email to reporters, and invitations are made so that members of the media can attend conference calls with athletes.

That is the norm. However for several years now the UFC has only granted such accommodations to large print and television outlets. If an MMA website is lucky enough to have a contributor whose day job is with a large newspaper, then they can sometimes get a spot on the UFC’s conference calls or access to events, but barring such luxuries, one is out of luck.

There is an exception to the above observation, in that Kevin Iole, a writer for Yahoo!’s MMA page is given access to UFC press events. Iole seems to have direct access to UFC executives like Dana White, because Yahoo! does offer a large audience.

Why might the UFC be so picky about this? The ban on internet website coverage came about in an era when mixed martial arts’ position was precarious in the United States. Lawmakers for a brief moment had turned scrutinizing eyes to the sport and the risk of over-regulation or even prohibition encouraged the UFC to be very careful about how it was portayed to the world.

So as it stands today without acknowledgement from the UFC itself, MMA websites tend to get their UFC stories from fighters, managers, and well, each other.

How Long Before the UFC Changes its Tune?

All things come to an end, policies included. What might push the UFC to become more open to social media like aspiring MMA fan sites? Competition. At the moment the UFC is of course leaps and bounds ahead of any who would wish to pry away its perch atop the MMA landscape. But in many industries when there is a Coke there is a Pepsi, and a serious contender may distinguish itself from others at some point. And that contender will likely have strong pre-existing relationships with the multitude of sites that cover MMA today. If the UFC comes to a point when it feels the need to maximize its public relations’ team’s reach, it would then take advantage of the constellation of online MMA websites’ eagerness to cover the UFC.

I predict that the UFC will indeed someday fully embrace the internet’s potential, from blogs, forums, social networks, applications like Twitter, and yes, all of the sites who work so hard to bring you the best MMA news out there.

When? Perhaps we’ll have to wait for new management, and Dana White doesn’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. The decision to change such an entrenched policy will likely need to come from the top.

To better understand the current lay of the land, on this episode of MMAPredictions Radio, we break our traditional preference of being under 15 minutes in length, as the show will accomodate conversations with Adam Morgan of Five Ounces of Pain, a site with significant readership and that is not given access to the UFC’s public relations team, and Yahoo!’s Kevin Iole, who does have such access. (I should note that we reached out to writers on several of the larger online MMA destinations and only heard back from these two).

I want to clarify that this piece is not an attempt to point fingers at anyone, nor single any promoter or journalist out. Nor is it an attempt to shake our humble fist in the air and suggest that anything should be differently. I hope that I don’t come across as such in our conversations today. All in all I was interested in documenting and analyzing the situation, as I am wont to do.

After the recording stopped with Kevin we continued to talk for a few minutes and I mentioned the possibility that indeed there is nothing unusual about the way the UFC is careful about to whom it gives credentials. Although it is the outlier in its policy regarding press credentials for MMA websites, perhaps the case is that those of us who write for MMA sites and cover the MMA scene are just spoiled by organizations who are desperate for more attention and will credential anyone. If one steps back and considers the media policies of the NFL, NBA, or MLB, they too are very selective.

In the end, if the UFC ever does decide to change its approach to MMA websites, it will most likely be on a case by case basis, starting with the websites with the largest reach and those with a history of covering the sport in a professional manner.

I do want to say that we did try and contact the UFC for comment on the story. I sent an email to the UFC’s director of Public Relations and did not hear back. Granted I did not give her much notice so perhaps she simply didn’t get to it and we may hear from them shortly. In any case they are welcome on the show any time.

Hope you enjoy this week’s episode of MMAPredictions Radio. If you have any comments on the matter, feel free to make them in our MMA forum or you can contact me directly.

Click here to listen to the 22 minute mp3!

Subscribe to our show using

UPDATE January 28, 2008 10:59AM PST: This article regarding a company that sent the message that engaging online commentators was not important contains a lesson that other companies may do well to observe.

- Caleb

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Tonight the National Geographic show Fight Science covers the sport we all love, mixed martial arts. Fight Science attempts to understand the physical mechanics behind martial endeavors of all types, from MMA, to those used by US Navy Seals and krav maga used by the Israeli Defense forces.

Fighters who will assist in demonstrating common MMA techniques include:

• Randy Couture
• Tito Ortiz
• Bas Rutten
• Dean Lister

Get ready for lots of slow motion shots of strikes on crash test dummies, and colorful graphics showing what happens to a brain when it’s deprived of oxygen.

If you get the National Geographic channel in your cable package, you should be able to see the episode tonight at 8pm EST & PST.

- Caleb

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EliteXC visited New Jersey’s Trump Taj Mahal last night in an event that was broadcast on the premium cable channel SHOWTIME and entitled ShoXC: Elite Challenger Series.

As is our habit here on MMAPredictions we presented the fights for our uses to pick the winners. Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 193 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Nine people predicted all of the fights correctly. With only five fights, this card was not as hard a task as many cards are!
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s five fights on MMAPredictions was 60.6%, which is a bit higher than average across all fight cards, which is in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Eddie Alvares vs. Ross “Da Boss” Ebanez. Ninety-four percent of users here on MMAPredictions knew Alvarez would put a hurting on Ebanez, who lasted into halfway through the second round of the fight.

Most surprising fight outcome: Bao Quach vs. Bobby McMaster. Seventy-four percent of predictors thought McMasters would win this one. I am not sure why, as Quach had a lot more MMA experience and a similar win/loss ratio. But in any case that seventy-four percent of folks was mistaken and Quach won the fight by unanimous judges’ decision. It was the only fight of the night to go the distance.

Next up on MMAPredictions is UFC 81, which will take place in Las Vegas and features Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir and Tim Sylvia vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Check out StubHub
for tickets if you’re going to be in Sin City that weekend. UFC 81 will make a great compliment to the NFL Superbowl, which takes place the next day!

- Caleb

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Eddie Alvarez and Ross Ebanez at the weigh-ins yesterday. Image courtesy EliteXC.

This evening SHOWTIME continues to build upon its tradition of showing combat sports in boxing and brings us five mixed martial arts fights courtesy of EliteXC. ShoXC Elite Challenger Series will be headlined by Philadelphia fighter Eddie Alvarez against Hawaii’s Ross Ebanez.

Alvarez, who is 10-1, will likely enjoy significant fan support from friends and family making the trip to the fights at the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. Ebanez, for his part, has an advantage of his own in that he is a student of BJ Penn, who just won the UFC lightweight title by defeating Joe Stevenson at UFC 80: Rapid Fire.

Although the event begins at 9pm Atlantic City, the broadcast on SHOWTIME begins at 11pm EST / PST. Make sure you get your predictions in here on MMAPredictions!

- Caleb

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Tank Abbott, the veteran brawler who made his name in early UFC events, will appear tonight on Kimmel Live show tonight/Thursday at 12:05 a.m. ET/PT on ABC.

Look for the obligatory “You think you can take me?” joke from Kimmel. In any case it will be a good chance to see how Tank presents himself in front of an audience he’s not normally accustomed to.

- Caleb

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note: I originally posted this saying it was Kimbo Slice who’d be on Kimmel tonight. Guess I had my wires crossed with Tank’s opponent at Elite XC: Tank vs. Kimbo. My apologies.

Last night the UFC maintained the busy pace it has set for itself in 2008, with UFC Ultimate Fight Night 12 in Las Vegas. The event was broadcast live to homes everywhere via cable television channel Spike TV.

We get our kicks here at MMAPredictions by providing a place where MMA fans can track their ability to predict the outcome of fights. Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 445 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Thirteen people predicted all of the fights correctly, achieving 100% prediction accuracy! This UFC card was not a tough event for many people.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s nine fights on MMAPredictions was 71.5%, which is way above our overall average across all fight cards, which is in the low fifties. This was a very easy card to predict for most MMA fans (except me apparently). On our detailed results heatmap, you can see that most of the flags are a solid red, indicating that the average prediction accuracy in those places were very high. Usually those colors are more in the light yellow range!

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Thiago Tavares vs. Michihiro Omigawa. Ninety-eight percent of users here on MMAPredictions knew Omigawa could not win tonight. Tavares won the judges’ unanimous decision after three rounds.

Most surprising fight outcome: Cole Miller vs. Jeremy Stephens. Eighty-four percent of predictors thought the contestant on Spike TV’s The Ultimate Fighter would not have a problem with Stephens, but Stephens proved them wrong.

One follow up before winding down that I thought was interesting… As I mention above, 13 people got every fight correct on this card. Here’s the really telling number: 94 of the 445 predictors missed just one fight. This tells me that the Cole Miller upset loss to Jeremy Stephens prevented this card from being very predictable.

Our next event on MMAPredictions is Friday’s EliteXC: ShoXC Challenger Series. The event is headlined by Ross Ebanez against Philadelphia’s Eddie Alvarez and will be broadcast on SHOWTIME.

- Caleb

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This evening Spike TV will present UFC Ultimate Fight Night 12.

Make sure you tune in this evening, and don’t forget to have your predictions made here on MMAPredictions.com. As usual, predictions will be locked one hour prior to the start of the event, which begins at 4pm PST at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas.

- Caleb

We’re not hurting for friends, but we could always use more! Befriend us on the MMAPredictions MySpace page!

On Saturday Bas Rutten was a part of the opening ceremonies at Dean Lister’s new training facility in San Diego, Throwdown Elite Training Center. We caught up with Bas and caught his impressions on the gym, his newest endeavors (infomercial, anyone?) and his opinion on the lawsuit between Randy Couture and the UFC.

You can watch the 2 minute 33 second video on YouTube or download a higher-resolution copy (15Mb).

- Caleb

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