MMAPredictions

Brothers Micah and Cole Miller. Image courtesy Micah Miller.

Oh, Brother, Where Art Thou?

By Eric Davidson

Sibling rivalry is something everyone is familiar with. Whether it was a brother or sister growing up, or even a close friend where a competitive edge was always present in all activities, the urge to defeat and compete is present in everyone. At the same time, however, when it is someone so close there is a degree of care that goes with the territory.

This is not something lost on MMA. Unusually, you won’t find any of the brotherly pairs from mixed martial arts competing with each other. In some of the pairs of brothers examined for this piece, there seems to be one brother that stands out from the other. For example; Clay Guida and Jason Guida. Clay is well known in the UFC for his seemingly unending stamina and powerful hammerfists, as well as animal like aggression. A strong competitor, his brother Jason is less-known, although sporting a long span of fights dating back to 2003. However, his last fight was in March of 2007 in Costa Rica and nothing since then. With a 17-15 record, one can only speculate the reasons for his hiatus.

Then there are the up and coming Miller brothers. Some of you may remember Cole Miller from The Ultimate Fighter 5; the individual who lost to Joe Lauzon in the quarterfinals. Since then he has amassed an impressive record of 13-3, with his most recent loss during UFC – Fight Night 12 in late January. His lesser known younger brother Micah has also gathered a stand out record of 9-1 with his last fight being at WEC 32 in mid February. Because they are in two different organizations and weight classes, a match between the two (if they would even agree) is unlikely.

From the new to the old, the Shamrock brothers are two of the most well known fighters in MMA history, often facing off against the Gracie’s for the title of “the First Family of MMA.” Although not blood related and being separated by an eight year age difference, these two men paved the way for many followers to come. Ken Shamrock and Frank Shamrock both worked at the “Lion’s Den,” a training facility that Frank was later fired from after Ken’s departure. Although each of the Shamrock’s is well known, they seemed to be better known by different generations of MMA fans.

Everyone who is a fan of MMA knows Matt Serra, but less known is his younger brother Nick Serra. Matt, who was the first American to receive a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu from Renzo Gracie, is one of the more iconic sportsmen in the UFC today. His fighting skills along with his Tommy DeVito-like attitude and (recently shown against George Saint-Pierre) good degree of class have cemented his spot in MMA history. Nick is also a very accomplished grappler, earning wins and placing in numerous tournaments (including the Grappler’s Quest Absolute Division Championship and IFF No Holds Barred Heavyweight Division) thanks to being the second American to earn his black belt from Renzo Gracie. He and his brother split their time between fights running their family owned studio.

Two brothers that have competed against each other in an official arena are Matt Hughes and Mark Hughes. These twin brothers squared off in a wrestling match while in high school with Mark leaving the victor. Despite this, Mark left MMA altogether with a record of 6-2, deciding it just wasn’t for him. Matt, however, has become one of the most recognizable faces of the UFC, and considered by some to be the greatest welterweight of all time. Matt’s career as a fighter has earned him a 41-6 record, while Matt continued his American dream by returning home to his family farm and running the Hughes Construction company.

Perhaps the two best known brothers in MMA today are Nick Diaz and Nate Diaz. Nick, who is Nate’s older brother by two years, has earned a strong reputation in the UFC, EliteXC, IFC, and the WEC for his impressive ground work and decent stand up game. He recently earned his black belt in May of 2007 from Cesar Gracie. Following in his brother’s footsteps but in a lighter weight class, Nate Diaz has made a very strong debut as one of the more deadly opponents when it comes to grappling. Nate won The Ultimate Fighter 5 beating Manny Gamburyan in the final round. With a 9-2 record, both of these brothers are forces to be reckoned with, and it doesn’t appear if either is going to be stepping out of the spotlight for some time to come.

It could be a question of nature versus nurture as to what influences someone to engage in martial arts or combative competition, and results in pairs of brothers like these in MMA. Perhaps there is some sort of genetic predisposition to thrive in the conflict that can only be illicited by fighting and confrontation. Or perhaps a way to prove something to one’s self; facing that fear that screams to run away, but seeing the path laid before you by an older sibling. Either way, if there is one thing MMA events are known for, it’s their amount of blood in the sport.

Results are in from today’s DREAM 2: Olympia, which took place in Japan earlier today. If you’d like to listen to this rundown instead of read it, here’s the 3 minute mp3 version.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 278 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one of those 278 predicted every fight correctly. TheReed and SteveBJJ came the closest, both incorrectly predicting the outcome of just one fight .
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 8 fights on MMAPredictions was 36.2% making this card very unpredictable. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is in the low fifties.

Jacare Souza sinks the rear naked choke on Ian Murphy. Photo courtesy Monty DiPietro / FEG.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie for this category (again, sigh)! Ninety-eight percent of users knew that Jacare and Kazushi Sakuraba would win their respective fights against Ian Murphy and Andrew Nakahara. Neither Murphy nor Nakahara had even fought in a pro MMA event before in their lives, so these outcomes were shockers to few. Both of these fights were won by submission.

Most surprising fight outcome: Minowaman loss by unanimous decision to Taiei Kin. Only 9% of predictors knew that Kin had it in him to defeat the much more experienced Ikuhisa Minowa.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is the International Fight League’s event IFL: New Blood New Battles which takes place on May 16th in Connecticut.

- Caleb

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Dream 2: Olympia takes place in just a matter of hours now in Japan. I get notes from people after fight cards overseas saying:

Oh Caleb I forgot that the fights started so much earlier overseas. I only put ten seconds into my original predictions and then I forgot to come back before the fights and update them, can you erase my picks?

No! Get your picks in on time!

- Caleb

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Warning - do not read this post unless you want to better understand how predictable mixed martial arts events are. If you are curious about MMA and how easy (or not) it is to correctly pick fight outcomes, come along with me intrepid reader.

So, for those who are new to MMAPredictions.com, here’s what you need to know: we allow users to make their selections of fight outcomes on MMA events, allowing them to determine how well they know MMA. What that also does is provide data on whether an individual MMA event was easy to predict or not because we can look at how folks did on average with their picks.

For example, if the average MMAPredictions user correctly predicts the outcomes of 90% of the fights on the upcoming UFC 84, we can say, “Mister MMA Promoter, you’re not doing a good job of putting together events because they’re way too predictable”.

What if the opposite happens? What if the average person correctly predicts 10% of the fights on a card correctly? If it turns out that MMA fighters deliver upsets that often, what the heck is it that we are watching anyway?

Okay, to continue this mental exercise, where do we draw the line? At what point do we say, “that fight card was too predictable”, or “that MMA event was too full of surprises and made no sense”?

I think we would all agree that if everyone gets 90% of a card correct, that’s too predictable. At that point it’s almost scripted. But is an average prediction accuracy of 80% for, say Tuesday’s DREAM 2 acceptable? That’s pretty boring too. But you get the idea.

Honestly, I don’t know where to draw the line. But I thought that we could take a look backwards at the events we’ve held to date on MMAPredictions.com and see if there’s anything to learn there.

This blue chart depicts where all 66 of the fight cards we’ve had to date fall in terms of predictability. Thankfully, we have had no events yet where the average MMAPredictions.com user got more than 90% of the card correct. We have also had no events where the average person got less than 19% of the card right.

Here are a few things I come away with when I look at the graph to the left:

• Caleb needs a real graphing software because doing that in Photoshop took forever and still doesn’t look very good.
• Thirty-one events were unpredictable (that is, the average prediction accuracy is below 50%) and thirty-three were predictable (that is, the average prediction accuracy is above 50%). The fact that it’s so close is comforting, and jives with the information on our all time site stats, which shows that historically across all fight cards, an average user will likely get just a little over 50% of the fight card correct.
• If an MMA fight card is going to be unpredictable, it’s probably going to be just a tad unpredictable, falling into the 40-49% range. It’s pretty rare for a fight card to be less predictable than that, as only 8 of 66 events have been less predictable.
• If an MMA fight card is going to be predictable, it’s pretty safe to say that it will have an average prediction accuracy that falls between 51% and 69%, a wider distribution.

I think the cool thing about the graph above is that we have a better idea of what to expect moving forward. While it doesn’t tell us any absolute truths (does such a thing even exist?), we can look at a particular MMA fight card and say “Hey whoa that’s weird!” with a little more confidence.

My question for you is, do you care if an event is unpredictable? I think we agree that too predictable is bad, but is there such a thing as too unpredictable? Is it okay, or even a good thing if a card is so full of upsets that the average prediction accuracy is somewhere between zero and 20%? Please let me know your thoughts by posting in this thread in the forum!

- Caleb

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If there’s one thing Southern California is not lacking, it is mixed martial arts fans and aspiring MMA fighters. Total Combat has been the platform for both fans and fighters in San Diego to enjoy and practice the sport of MMA after transitioning from its original home in Tijuana, Mexico. A launch pad for fighters now climbing the ranks in MMA like the UFC’s Jon “War Machine” Koppenhaver and Eddie Sanchez, last night Total Combat held its twenty-eighth card to a packed house at the 4th and B club downtown.

Thierry Sokoudjou coaches Beau King.

Beau King vs. Mark Olsen

Olsen started the fight with a takedown that placed him in King’s guard. King attempted an armbar but Olsen, who was making his professional fight debut, avoided the submission. After a scramble King took Olsen to the mat, where Olsen began experimenting with the rubber guard. As the 3 minute round came to a close, King was sitting back into a straight foot lock on Olsen.

In round two King, coached by another Total Combat graduate Thierry Sokoudjou, lost his footing during an early exchange of strikes and fell backwards. Olsen seized the opening and furiously rained punches down on King until referee Jason Herzog stopped the match.

Jose Rodriguez strikes Paul Almanza just before the fight is called.

Jose Rodriguez vs Paul Almanza

This fight had a cycle that repeated at regular intervals. Rodriguez would quickly outstrike Almanza, who would then unsuccessfully shoot on Rodriguez. The two would then find themselves up against the fence, where Rodriguez would escape, stand, and begin the cycle again. In the second round Rodriguez punished Almanza enough after another poor takedown attempt and referee Cecil Peoples stopped the fight.

David Espinosa taps Jason Henshaw via north-south choke.

David Espinosa vs Jason Henshaw

The only round in this fight opened with Henshaw kicking the side of Espinosa’s face loudly. Espinosa immediately indicated that he had an issue with his eye and the match was halted while a doctor examined it. After a brief consultation, the action began again and Espinosa quickly shot in on Henshaw, picked him up high off the ground, and slammed him to the canvas. Espinosa went to the north-south position on the ground where he immediately san a north-south choke. Henshaw tapped 59 seconds into the match.

Afterwards Espinosa, who previously trained alongside fellow Northern Californian Urijah Faber, stated that his eye was indeed still affected and that he saw three images of Henshaw when the fight renewed. “I just shot for the one in the center”, he joked. Espinosa went on to say that he learned the fight-winning submission just two weeks ago.

Kevin Dunsmoor delivers strikes from Nick Garcia’s guard.

Kevin Dunsmoor vs Nick Garcia

Garcia began this encounter by taking Dunsmoor down and striking down on Dunsmoor from the half guard. To the loud cheer of the fans, Dunsmoor swept Garcia and took his own turn punching Garcia from half guard.

In the second round, Dunsmoor landed a double leg takedown and was forced to defend repeated triangle attempts by Garcia. Garcia eventually managed to escape and reverse Dunsmoor, although his good fortune did not last long and he quickly found himself taken down again by another Dunsmoor double leg. The round ends with Dunsmoor getting the best of Garcia up against the side of the cage.

In the third round, Garcia landed a big slam on Dunsmoor and took Dunsmoor’s back. Dunsmoor escaped however and managed to mount Garcia, where he stayed through the end of the fight. Kevin Dunsmoor ended up winning via unanimous decision.

Joshric Fenwick escaping Rolando Perez’ triangle-armbar attempt.

Rolando Perez vs. Joshric Fenwick

In what turned out to be the fight of the night, Fenwick initiated the action by sprinting across the cage into Perez, who showed great poise in fending off the very physical surprise assault. After a tussle, Perez nearly lands a triangle-armbar combination attack, but Fenwick works out of it and finds himself in Perez’ guard. Fenwick spends the round striking from inside Perez’ guard, but does not cause any major damage.

In round two Fenwick repeatedly tried to take down Perez again, which he only did after Perez stuffed several attempts. In the instances where the fight goes back to the feet Perez has his way with Fenwick, tagging Fenwick with low leg kicks and punches to the jaw. Fenwick senses his disadvantage and takes it back to the ground with a double leg, where he narrowly escapes a deep armbar.

In round three a gassing Fenwick attempted more damage from inside Perez’ guard, who again almost sank an armbar on Fenwick. A point is deducted from Fenwick after referee Jason Herzog observed a head butt against Perez. Stood back up, Perez continues to pepper Fenwick. When time is called, one judge calls the fight for Perez, another for Fenwick, and a third votes for a draw and his wish is granted. We may see this match up again to settle things between the two.

Joe Nicholas vs. Kris Kohls

Nicholas opened the fight with a leg kick, which Kohls attempted to return with one of his own. However Nicholas caught Kohl’s striking leg and turned it into a takedown. After a period of perceived inactivity Cecil Peoples stands the fighters back up, and a botched takedown attempt from Kohls results in him fighting from his guard. Peoples stops the match again after a period of no action, and after another awkward exchange of strikes Nicholas mounts Kohls against the cage wall and pounds on Kohls until Peoples deems the encounter a technical knockout.

Some of San Diego’s combat sports elite: The University of Jiu-Jitsu’s Saulo Ribeiro, Xande Ribeiro, and Fabricio “Morango” Camoes.

Joey Beltran vs Phil Friedman

Beltran, with the new nickname “Mexecutioner” and a newly shaven head, quickly locked up with fellow slugger Friedman and the two found themselves against the fence vying for takedowns. Intermittently the pair would find each other in the center of the ring again and amidst several exchanges of heavy leather, both of Beltran’s hands went off and he ended the evening’s main event when Friedman fell to the ground and referee Jason Herzog stepped in to put an end to the punishment. The crowd went crazy for its hometown heavyweight and Total Combat 28 was in the books.

- Caleb

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The UFC quietly updated two events with new fights overnight.

UFC Ultimate Fighter Season 7 Finale:

• Dean Lister vs Jeremy Horn
• Spencer Fisher vs Jeremy Stephens
• Drew McFedries vs Marvin Eastman
• Dustin Hazelett vs Josh Burkman

UFC 86:

• Jared Rollins vs Ben Saunders
• Jorge Gurgel vs Cole Miller
• Patrick Cote vs Ricardo Almeida

Normally here on MMAPredictions.com we will leave this sort of news for our thread in our forum on new MMA fights, but it has been a bit of a slow news cycle recently. The very best thing you can do to never miss any changes to MMA fight cards is to subscribe to that thread’s RSS feed.

- Caleb

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Well lightning did not strike twice tonight in Montreal at UFC 83. Although 14% of our predictors here on MMAPredictions.com thought that Matt Serra would beat George St. Pierre for the second time, he was unable to repeat the unlikely victory he enjoyed over GSP at UFC 69: Shootout, and now St. Pierre is the welterweight champion of the UFC once again.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 616 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• One person of those 616 predicted every fight correctly. Way to go RicksonFan! More details on this below.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 11 fights on MMAPredictions was 63.4% making this card more predictable than most.. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie for this category again! Ninety-four percent of users knew that Mac Danzig and Michael Bisping would win their respective fights against Mark Bocek and Charles McCarthy. Ninety-four percent of people knowing anything is unusual, so in sport when outcome should be hard to predict, this sort of matchmaking is less-than-desirable.

Most surprising fight outcome: Jason Day’s first round TKO of Alan Belcher. Only 18% of predictors thought Day would defeat the seasoned Belcher, who made his UFC debut way back at UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral.

As you know well by now, there was a contest to see who could best predict the outcomes of UFC 83’s fights to see who would win the copy of Matt Hughes‘ book Made in America: The Most Dominant Champion in UFC History. I posted a note on our forums saying that many people had tied for first place and that all had gotten one fight incorrect. Shortly thereafter I received an email from our MMAPredictions user RicksonFan saying that his profile revealed that he had gotten 100% of the UFC 83 fights correct. I am not sure why some parts of the MMAPredictions system identified him as having missed one fight. I asked our site’s developers to see whether RicksonFan did indeed get all fights correct and they have confirmed that he in fact, did. They’re also going to see if they can find out why the snafu happened. Ah, web sites, right? In any case, congratulations RicksonFan, I will get your address from you shortly and get that book in the mail to you!

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is the Japanese event DREAM 2 which takes place on Tuesday April 29. I am very excited about this one. As a BJJ guy I get excited whenever Jacare is in action!

- Caleb

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By Eric Davidson

Last night’s fights at UFC 83: GSP vs. Serra 2 were shining examples of what the UFC has to offer. A brilliant display of sportsmanship and humility went hand and hand with almost every bout of the evening. Held in George St. Pierre’s hometown of Montreal, Canada; the crowd clearly reflected the country’s picks and hopes to win.

The night started off with Mac Danzig facing off against Mark Bocek, a Canadian native whose cheers from the crowd were a major motivator as he entered the ring. Round one began with the opponents trading light combos with nothing major landing than a few glancing jabs and crosses. After a tangle against the fence Bocek maneuvered Danzig over his shoulders to take the first ground control. Bocek tried to tee-off on Danzig but Mac’s defense was solid and wasn’t offering much of an opening for Bocek to take advantage of. As Bocek tried to work a solid submission plan, the fighters went back to their feet before going right back to the fences. Danzig maneuvered his way on top and had Bocek’s exposed back where he landed a simultaneous double body strike which didn’t appear to cause much damage. Round two played out in a noticeable favor to Mac, with Danzig firing in some elbow strikes between clenches and guards on the ground after landing a huge knee on Bocek. As they got up Danzig connected with another knee strike as Bocek attempted to pick him up for a takedown. On the ground again, Danzig easily passed Bocek’s guard and fired light shots into Bocek’s body and face in an attempt to soften up an opening for a major strike. Danzig pulled out of the ground work and brought the fight back up to its feet. Bocek looked dazed as he attempted for a shot at Danzig’s leg again before the round ends. As round three began Danzig was looking much more confident than the previous two. Bocek followed some attempted heavy combos with a clench that brought the two back to the fence. Danzig ended up over Bocek’s shoulders again and while on the ground looked to go for a gogoplata attempt that to the crowd’s disappointment (and I’m sure that of Nick Diaz fans everywhere) failed. As the fight moved back to its feet Danzig lands a crucial knee strike to Bocek’s face, cutting it open and causing him to bleed profusely from his left eye. The fight is paused so the ring doctor can examine the eye and determines that Bocek is still okay to fight. After another clench into the fence Danzig succeeds in a leg sweep taking the fight back down to the ground allowing Danzig to take Bocek’s back, and finally ending the fight with a rear naked choke. Winner: Mac Danzig by submission in round 3.

Fight two was between Charles McCarthy and Michael Bisping; two evenly matched fighters and both strong strikers. McCarthy started out with some heavy rights, which Bisping answered back with what appeared to be strong combos. However, McCarthy’s defense was solid and showed his furor by taunting Bisping with a wide open mouth and a smile. McCarthy continued to play a strong defensive game and ended each rush with a smile in a clear attempt to frustrate the fighter from across the pond. The crowd began a soccer chant to support Bisping that was answered by a heavy takedown from McCarthy. After a failed guillotine Bisping was finally able to free his hand, enabling him to tee-off on McCarthy. After they got back to their feet Bisping rapidly fired effective knees and uppercuts which put McCarthy up against the fence. It was clear that Bisping was trying to end the fight before the round ended but the bell appeared to save McCarthy for the time being. However, McCarthy was unable to continue the fight as made evident by his inability to stand up after the round ended. Winner of round two: a gracious and sportsmanlike Bisping.

Then we move onto what was one of the most disappointing displays I’ve ever seen in the UFC. Nate Quarry, looking like he was carved out of wood after recovering from a series of possible career ending injuries, was the obvious dominator of the match. His opponent, Kalib Starnes, bragged before the fight that he was the better boxer, and was probably going to surprise Quarry by his skills. Not the case, at all. Starnes looks frightened, unconfident, and nervous through out the entire match. Every attempt Quarry made to have an actual fight was ruined by Starnes inability to engage in combat. Quarry chased Starnes around the ring for a painstaking three rounds that took its toll on the crowd’s patience. Montreal showed its distain by booing for the majority of the competition, eventually ending in a chant of “bor-ing.” Quarry’s frustration with the match was shown by his taunting, which Starnes responded to with a classy middle finger. Yes, this is professional fighting with the shooting of elbows, fists, and apparently, birds. Even after the match, which ended with one of the judges scoring the match an embarrassingly low 30/24, Starnes continued to respond to Quarry’s corner with suggestions to fornicate with themselves, and questionings of their sexual preferences. Starnes, a Canadian himself, was booed by his own countrymen, while Quarry, who was initially booed upon entering the ring, received appreciative cheers. Winner (obviously): Nate Quarry.

Fight four went to obvious crowd favorite Rich Franklin and Travis Lutter. Lutter’s entering song was “Rock Star” by Nickelback, a Canadian rock band who’s audible appearance might have been construed as a way to win over the crowd of Canuks. Support he needed, with Franklin being the obvious crowd pleaser as he entered the arena. The bout began immediately into the clench where Franklin landed a nice knee strike. Lutter shot for the single leg and took the fight into the fences where Lutter lead the fight into the ground. Lutter, Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, used his BJJ experience to try and set up a powerful submission. However, Franklin’s training shone through, defending very well against Lutter’s skills. Lutter began firing off light punches, seeing that his BJJ skills weren’t going to be enough to end the fight on their own. Franklin escaped the grapple only to have Lutter snag one of his legs (efficient only in keeping Franklin from using his strikes) until the end of the round. Round two was dominated by Franklin, using his impressive striking abilities to wear Lutter down. Franklin maintained a steady degree of stamina through out the round; Lutter, however, dropped his hands, stumbled around, and did everything that he could to keep himself from being knocked out. In the end, Franklin landed a huge combo with his fists and a hard knee that took Lutter to the ground where Franklin easily finished him off. Winner: Rich Franklin by TKO.

And finally the match the 21,000 people in the crowd were waiting for, Matt Serra versus George St. Pierre. The announcers were hardly audible during G.S.P.’s entrance because of the noise from the crowd. One would have thought Rocky Balboa had just entered little Italy. The actual Italian however, entered the arena to a tsunami of jeers and boos, the security around him very tight thanks to the amount of trash talking that preceded the night’s event. Serra seemed to relish in his villain personae, smiling the entire walk to the cage, but at the same time staying respectful to the crowd; no middle fingers, no yelling, just smiles. The fight began with an immediate takedown by GSP, and for the rest of round one Matt Serra seemed unable to gain any sort of effective effort against GSP’s offense. However, Serra’s abilities on the ground kept George from doing any major damage while on the ground, and the round ended with Serra walking to his corner looking frustrated. Round two belonged to Pierre without a doubt. Serra’s front kick was countered with excellent timing by Pierre’s takedown. After the fight was taken back to their feet, both fighters missed hard kicks before clenching up. Serra brawled his way out of the tangle only to eat Pierre’s jabs without even appearing to avoid or block them. Pierre scored another takedown where, despite Serra’s attempts to counter, he proceeded to slam elbows, fists, and those killer knees into Serra’s body. After several brutal knee strikes that would turn most guys’ urine red, the official called the fight. Winner: George St. Pierre. After the fight, Matt Serra displayed a fantastic degree of sportsmanship and class by hoisting Pierre into the air saying “He’s the best in the world.”

Well, we are now just moments away from UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2. Questions to be answered that night, among others:

• Was George St. Pierre’s loss to Matt Serra a fluke?
• Anderson Silva beat up Rich Franklin and Travis Lutter in each of their last fights. Which is able to bounce back with a win after their loss to “The Spider”?
• Will Ed Herman put an end to Brazilan jiu-jitsu champion Demian Maia’s unbeaten streak?

UFC 83 is available on Pay Per View and will be broadcast beginning at 10 PM Eastern and 7 PM Pacific. For those who do not have access to PPV, you will be able to purchase the event online Yahoo! if you use a computer running Windows and have broadband.

Remember, the person who predicts the most of the event’s eleven fights right here on MMAPredictions.com will win a copy of Matt Hughes new book! Details are here.

If you’re not a member of MMAPredictions.com, signing up is easy, and if you like, we will even send you text messages of fight results to your cell phone for free!

- Caleb

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Okay we’ve got a graph above with red and blue and the words UFC all over it. What does it meeeeeeeean?!?

Let’s back up a second. You probably know that here on MMAPredictions.com we allow mixed martial arts fans to predict the outcomes of fights in major MMA events. With this data, we can see how predictable the fights are in promotions like the UFC, Strikeforce, and EliteXC. Every time a user predicts on a card, they will be shown what percentage of the card they got correct. We then average all of our users’ percentages to show how predictable a fight card was overall.

In the graph above, the red line shows our users’ average on the past seven UFC events:

• UFC 76: 42.5%
• UFC 77: 45.7%
• UFC 78: 60.4%
• UFC 79: 52.0%
• UFC 80: 47.7%
• UFC 81: 49.1%
• UFC 82: 62.1%

The blue line shows the average of all users’ fight predictions across all fight cards (UFC, Strikeforce, IFL, EliteXC, DREAM, etc) we’ve ever had on the site, so we can get an idea of how predictable MMA is in general. Currently that number is 53.9%.

So, comparing the recent UFC events with how predictable all MMA is, we can see that UFC is never really far off the mark from what is expected. On four of the last seven events, the fights have been less predictable than most, and on two they’ve been more predictable. One (UFC 79) fell right in line with what was expected.

In general we can say that the red line shows a trend to be higher on the graph and more predictable over time. Does this mean that the UFC is becoming more predictable, and less interesting? Well keep in mind that this is just a snapshot of the last seven events. And none of the values are really far from the norm of 53.9%, so I think it’s early to say that UFC is a predictable MMA promoter. We will only know with time and more data.

On that note, you’d better get your picks in for this weekend’s event, UFC 83: GSP vs Matt Serra! See how well you know MMA, and we can also find out if the UFC really is getting to be more predictable or not. Remember, you can win a copy of Matt Hughes‘ new book in our Prediction Contest if you predict those UFC fights better than anyone else!

- Caleb

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