MMAPredictions

I know it was Dickens who said, “It was the best of times… and the worst of times” or something to that effect. I am going to borrow the idea and apply it to M-1 Global’s Yarennoka event which was held in Japan. In this case, it was the most predictable of fight cards, and the least predictable of fight cards.

Let’s dive right in to the numbers. This card held eight fights. In five fights of the eight, more than 90% of our users here on MMAPredictions.com sided with a favorite. Ninety-nine percent of our users thought Fedor Emelianenko and Shinya Aoki would win their respective matches, 97% thought Hyato Sakurai would win, 96% thought Murilo Bustamante would win, and 94% of our users thought the undefeated Gilbert Melendez would win.

I have never seen our users so confident about so many fights on a fight card. From their perspective, Yarennoka was a very predictable event indeed.

But if there’s one thing we seem to know about MMA, it is that it’s not easily predicted.

Two of those five fights mentioned above did not work out the way fans expected. Gilbert Melendez put up the first loss of his career and disappointed the 94% who expected him to win, and the aging Murilo Bustamante was beaten by Makoto Takimoto, who prior to the event had only won half of his six professional MMA bouts, proving 96% of predictors wrong.

On to some of our traditional views at how predictable a fight card is here on MMAPredictions. Much of this information comes from Yarennoka’s detailed results page.

• 210 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one predicted all eight fights correctly! Probably foiled by the Melendez and Bustamante losses, the best anyone was able to do was get 6 of the eight correct. Among those was berti, who I think has a funny user icon.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s eight fights on MMAPredictions was 42.2%, which is a bit lower than the usual average in the lower fifties. So indeed the card’s outcomes were relatively unpredictable.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie! As mentioned before, 99% of MMAPredictions users who made picks on this card thought Shinya Aoki would beat Bukyung Jung (heck, the guy had never fought before), and 99% knew Fedor Emelianenko would pick apart Hong Man Choi. These were both very easily predicted fights.

Most surprising fight outcome: As previously alluded to, Murilo Bustamante’s loss to Makoto Takimoto. Only 4% of MMAPredictions folks thought Takimoto could pull this one out, and he did.

It’s tempting to be critical of Japanese productions because they may put on fights where it’s really easy to see who will come out on top. This card appeared to be such an event but in the end - probably to the surprise of the promoters themselves - it was less predictable than most MMA events.

Tomorrow I will put together the Breakdown of the other New Years Eve show from Asia, K-1 Hero’s Dynamite Premium.

Have a very Happy New Year everyone, and be safe tonight!

- Caleb

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The fighters at the pre-fight press conference for K-1. Image courtesy FEG.

One last minute reminder for everyone - we still have to mega fight cards taking place in Asia to predict on! And don’t wait till December 31st to predict on them because it’s likely they’ll already have taken place depending on where you live!

K-1 Hero’s Dynamite Fields Premium

Many thanks to FEG for sending MMAPredictions the photos to populate the images for the fighters’ profiles, as you’ll see on the link above! Interestingly Rani Yahya was not present in any of the photos in the press conference. No word back yet from FEG on whether it means anything for his fight against Kid Yamamoto.

M-1 Global: Yarennoka!

Remember this set of fights will be televised Monday, December 31 LIVE at 6:00 a.m. ET on HDNet here in the United States. The good news: Fedor Emelianenko is fighting. The bad: Fedor Emelianenko is fighting Hong Man Choi. And even tho Gesias Calvancanti is hurt and unable to fight as originally scheduled, we get to see Gilbert Melendez!

I will update the results of the fight cards here on MMAPredictions as soon as I get up in the morning!

- Caleb

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PRESS RELEASE

HDNET FIGHTS: FEDOR EMELIANENKO TO FIGHT LIVE ON HDNET
“Inside MMA’s” top ranked heavyweight, and the undisputed #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Fedor Emelianenko returns this New Year’s Eve on HDNet Fights

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

DALLAS (December 7, 2007) - Andrew Simon, CEO of HDNet Fights, announced today that HDNet will feature the man considered by many to be the greatest fighter in any weight-class, Fedor Emelianenko in a LIVE bout from Japan only available in the United States on HDNet.

“HDNet Fights: Fedor Returns” will air LIVE on Monday, December 31 on HDNet.

This LIVE broadcast is made possible by a partnership between M-1 Global and HDNet Fights.

“Today’s announcement with M-1 Global/Fedor clearly demonstrates that HDNet Fights is committed to working on a unified basis to deliver the best fighters and the best fights,” said Simon. “HDNet is clearly becoming the home for MMA action and this amazing LIVE event featuring the return of Fedor is our holiday present to HDNet Fights fans. We are working hard every day improving HDNet Fights and this is a great first step in the process.”

Mark Cuban, owner of HDNet Fights said, “This announcement reinforces our commitment to becoming the home for LIVE MMA action. No one else but HDNet will have the return of Fedor LIVE from Japan. On December 15, we’ll also have HDNet Fights: Reckless Abandon LIVE from Dallas featuring superstars Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Frank Trigg and then we’re ending the month halfway across the world in Japan with the return of the world’s best fighter - Fedor. What could be better?”

“Once again, M-1 Global’s commitment to working with others has produced major results as MMA fans throughout the U.S. will be able to watch heavyweight sensation Fedor Emelianenko compete live on New Year’s Eve on HDNet,” said M-1 Global CEO Monte Cox. “The Yarennoka event in Tokyo features a stellar lineup of fighters and will cap the year with Fedor in the main event.”

Mitchell Maxwell, Chairman of M-1 Global, stated, “We’re elated to be working with Mark Cuban and HDNet. Mark is a big fan of Mixed Martial Arts and Fedor. Our partnership in bringing this Japanese event live to the US meets our mission of promoting the sport and its athletes worldwide.”

For more information on HDNet Fights, please visit www.hdnetfights.com.

Randy Couture, who announced two weeks ago that he had resigned from the UFC, will be holding a press conference from his Xtreme Couture gym in Las Vegas live Thursday, October 25 at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT on the HDNet show Inside MMA.

Many fans hope that Randy Couture will announce his plans as to where he will fight next, especially given yesterday’s M-1 Global press conference with Fedor Emelianenko. However as legal issues are clouding Couture’s status with the UFC, it is possible that that hope will remain unfulfilled for the moment. At a minimum, the press conference is to address Couture’s “reasons for resigning from the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) in every capacity”.

Update 10/24/2007 3:34PM: For those who don’t have HDNet, Proelite.com will also be broadcasting the Randy Couture press conference on their website.

- Caleb

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For the extent of mixed martial arts’ existence in the United States, the UFC has enjoyed its status at the top of the feeding chain of mixed martial arts organizations. Just as the brand name Kleenex is commonly used in place of the word “tissue”, the term “ultimate fighting” has become synonymous with the sport of MMA to the average English speaker who is aware of the sport. Understanding the power of branding, the UFC has gone to lengths to perpetuate the idea that the UFC is the sport of MMA itself over its fourteen year lifespan, especially since the purchase of the UFC by Zuffa LLC in 2001. While some claim that the sport of mixed martial arts has gained ground and mainstream success, astute observers that indeed the UFC can claim this level of achievement, but MMA as a whole can not.

This week however the UFC encountered a trio of setbacks their Las Vegas headquarters would not likely have predicted a mere six months ago. Fedor Emelianenko, the man regarded by most knowledgeable MMA fans as possibly the best heavyweight fighter in the history of the sport, has been on the market and shopping around for the best offer for his services after the purchase of his former employer PrideFC, leaving him a free agent. Emelianenko’s management claimed that he would be signing a deal with an organization by the end of September, ending months of speculation about where fans may see him in action again. Though many suitors were reported to be in competition for the Russian fighter including EliteXC, HDNetFights, BodogFights, the IFL, and M-1, it was widely expected as time passed that the UFC was going to wind up on top as time went on and details of negotiational wrangling between the two were the only news that emerged on the matter.

On Wednesday Loretta Hunt of The FightNetWork broke the news that Fedor Emelianenko had signed with M-1, an historically Russian mixed martial arts promotion. Emelianenko’s manager Vadim Finkelstein has executive roles in M-1 so the possibility of him signing in that organization were never totally ruled out.

While Emelianenko’s value to the UFC is derived from what he does in the ring, it was his potential impact on the UFC brand that mattered most. There will likely always be more fighters out there for the UFC to sign that can excite a fan base, but at this moment Emelianenko symbolizes something more. As Emelianenko has held the number one spot in online fighter ranking polls across the web including Sherdog and Yahoo! Sports, the UFC’s hope was that by signing him they could lay to rest any notion that there is another organization on the planet where the best fighters go to ply their trade. While a fighter of his significance competes elsewhere it leaves the door open for fans to remember entities aside from the UFC.

Randy Couture has been an icon in the sport of mixed martial arts for more than a decade after debuting as a professional MMA fighter in his first fight in UFC 13. Only six of his twenty-four fights have not taken place in the UFC octagon, and his two underdog victories against Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia since coming out of his 2006 retirement from the sport have cemented him as fan favorite. No fighter in the sport can be said to possess the recognition and respect that Randy Couture has, earning himself the nicknames “Captain America” and “The Natural” in addition to working as a representative for the UFC and commentator for UFC fights.

When the UFC received Randy Couture’s resignation by way of fax this week just a couple of days after Fedor Emelianenko announced that he decided not to sign with the UFC, it added insult to injury. Couture told Sherdog.com that his reasons for leaving were two-fold. First, in terms of competition left for the aging competitor, only one man aroused interest for Couture: Fedor Emelianenko, who had just announced that he would not be competing in the UFC. Secondly, Couture stated that he was “tired of being taken advantage of” with regard to compensation. A consumate professional, Couture had never previously publicly expressed dissatisfaction with his employer. Now however, in one blow the perception that the top MMA talent can and does fight outside the UFC was reinforced as well as the notion that it did wrong by the most popular and loved MMA fighter the sport knows.

Outside the octagon, the week held more news that was likely not welcomed by UFC president Dana White either. Multichannel News reported that the long-promised agreement between the UFC and premium cable channel HBO was not to be. While HBO exec Ross Greenburg played the diplomat and stated that, “You never know what the future holds”, leaving the door open for a deal in the future, the message for the time being is that the two parties have decided to “go [their] separate ways”.

There is no doubt that the UFC is and remains the highest-earning, most stable, and most popular venue for mixed martial arts today. With years of inertia, a current stable of popular fighters and its status among aspiring fighters as the place to legitimize one’s career, it remains the default incarnation of the sport of mixed martial arts. Its success in the near term is all but guaranteed. If it is true however that such giants meet their end by way of the proverbial “death by a thousand cuts”, most would agree that the juggernaut received three this week.

- Caleb

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