MMAPredictions

Results are in from today’s DREAM 2: Olympia, which took place in Japan earlier today. If you’d like to listen to this rundown instead of read it, here’s the 3 minute mp3 version.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 278 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one of those 278 predicted every fight correctly. TheReed and SteveBJJ came the closest, both incorrectly predicting the outcome of just one fight .
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 8 fights on MMAPredictions was 36.2% making this card very unpredictable. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is in the low fifties.

Jacare Souza sinks the rear naked choke on Ian Murphy. Photo courtesy Monty DiPietro / FEG.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie for this category (again, sigh)! Ninety-eight percent of users knew that Jacare and Kazushi Sakuraba would win their respective fights against Ian Murphy and Andrew Nakahara. Neither Murphy nor Nakahara had even fought in a pro MMA event before in their lives, so these outcomes were shockers to few. Both of these fights were won by submission.

Most surprising fight outcome: Minowaman loss by unanimous decision to Taiei Kin. Only 9% of predictors knew that Kin had it in him to defeat the much more experienced Ikuhisa Minowa.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is the International Fight League’s event IFL: New Blood New Battles which takes place on May 16th in Connecticut.

- Caleb

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Well lightning did not strike twice tonight in Montreal at UFC 83. Although 14% of our predictors here on MMAPredictions.com thought that Matt Serra would beat George St. Pierre for the second time, he was unable to repeat the unlikely victory he enjoyed over GSP at UFC 69: Shootout, and now St. Pierre is the welterweight champion of the UFC once again.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 616 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• One person of those 616 predicted every fight correctly. Way to go RicksonFan! More details on this below.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 11 fights on MMAPredictions was 63.4% making this card more predictable than most.. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie for this category again! Ninety-four percent of users knew that Mac Danzig and Michael Bisping would win their respective fights against Mark Bocek and Charles McCarthy. Ninety-four percent of people knowing anything is unusual, so in sport when outcome should be hard to predict, this sort of matchmaking is less-than-desirable.

Most surprising fight outcome: Jason Day’s first round TKO of Alan Belcher. Only 18% of predictors thought Day would defeat the seasoned Belcher, who made his UFC debut way back at UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral.

As you know well by now, there was a contest to see who could best predict the outcomes of UFC 83’s fights to see who would win the copy of Matt Hughes‘ book Made in America: The Most Dominant Champion in UFC History. I posted a note on our forums saying that many people had tied for first place and that all had gotten one fight incorrect. Shortly thereafter I received an email from our MMAPredictions user RicksonFan saying that his profile revealed that he had gotten 100% of the UFC 83 fights correct. I am not sure why some parts of the MMAPredictions system identified him as having missed one fight. I asked our site’s developers to see whether RicksonFan did indeed get all fights correct and they have confirmed that he in fact, did. They’re also going to see if they can find out why the snafu happened. Ah, web sites, right? In any case, congratulations RicksonFan, I will get your address from you shortly and get that book in the mail to you!

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is the Japanese event DREAM 2 which takes place on Tuesday April 29. I am very excited about this one. As a BJJ guy I get excited whenever Jacare is in action!

- Caleb

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UFC fans are probably feeling today the way you do after Thanksgiving dinner: lethargic after having consumed too much. Yesterday the UFC held UFC Ultimate Fight Night 13 in Colorado, the first time the mixed martial arts promotion has been to the state since their 1995 event titled UFC The Ultimate Ultimate. A total of twelve fights took place in Broomfield and seven were broadcast live across much of the country on cable television.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 456 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one of those 456 predicted every fight correctly. With a dozen outcomes to predict, that’s no surprise. Special mention goes to bprios and CornishMMA, who were the only people to correctly predict all but one fight!
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s 12 fights on MMAPredictions was 52.5% making this card very average in terms of difficulty to predict.. Since MMAPredictions’ inception, the average prediction accuracy across all fight cards is 53.9%.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: We have a tie! In two fights, 98% of our predictors guessed the winner of the fight. Folks were overwhelmingly confident in the likelihood that both Marcus Aurelio and Clay Guida would beat their respective opponents, Ryan Roberts and Sammy Schiavo.

Most surprising fight outcome: Another tie! Eighty-four percent of our predictors incorrectly predicted James Irvin’s victory over Houston Alexander, and eighty-four percent of folks incorrectly predicted Tommy Speer’s KO loss to Anthony Johnson.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is IFL: New Blood, New Battles which takes place on Friday evening!

- Caleb

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Mixed martial arts fans were not disappointed with the mid-week action that went down in Las Vegas last night at WEC 33. Brian Stann took Doug Marshall’s WEC heavyweight title from him by force with a knockout that came just 95 seconds into the fight. This fight was correctly predicted by about two-thirds of our predictors on MMAPredictions.com.

Here is a snapshot of how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event overall, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 237 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one correctly predicted all the fights. With so many fights on the card, it is no easy task.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s eleven fights on MMAPredictions was 45.6% making this card just a tad harder to predict than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Logan Clark’s victory over Scott Harper. Ninety-five percent of our predictors knew that Logan would continue his unbeaten streak in MMA last night. Logan Clark knocked out Harper shortly before the end of the first round.

Most surprising fight outcome: Alex Serdyukov’s defeat of Ryan Stonitsch. Eighty-six percent of our predictors were wrong on that one, as Serdyukov put a stop to Stanitsch’s unbeated streak by way of a first round triangle submission.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com is Strikeforce: Frank Shamrock vs. Cung Le from San Jose. This event has had changes to the fights regularly, especially in these last few days. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, Jake Shields, and Nick Diaz. Keep an eye out till the very last minute as things could change again at the rate we’re going now.

- Caleb

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DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix Round 1 took place in Japan today. Perhaps the most important news of the card was the result of the fight between JZ Calvancanti and Shinya Aoki. At 3:46 into the first round, Calvancanti delivered an elbow to the back of Aoki’s neck, a rule infraction that caused the fight to be ruled a no-contest.

Calvancanti punches from inside Aoki’s guard prior to the illegal elbow. Photo courtesy DREAM.

Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions for the Japanese event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 224 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Just two people were able to correctly predict every fight on the card. Congratulations, THEUFCKID and JimMancini!
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s nine fights on MMAPredictions was 70.1%, making this card more way predictable than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Crocop vs Tatsuya Mizuno. Every single one of the predictors on this event predicted that Crocop would win. That’s right: it was unanimous. I don’t recall ever seeing that on MMAPredictions. No fight that is so predictable should ever be made. Let’s not forget too that three other fights on the card were correctly predicted by 95% of predictors. I think I see a trend here.

Most surprising fight outcome: Katsuhiko Nagata vs. Artur Oumakhanov. Nagata proved 90% of the predictors wrong on this card.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com: WEC 33. Lots of fights on that card although we won’t get to see the Paulo Filho vs Chael Sonnen fight we were hoping for now that Filho’s checked himself into a substance abuse treatment center. Good luck!

- Caleb

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On Saturday evening Londoners were able to enjoy Cage Rage 25, which took place at the Wembley Arena. Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions.com for the event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 224 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• No one got all eleven fights totally correct. But hey, there were eleven fights on the card, and the fighters aren’t the most well-known, so it would be a miracle to get them all. Both Kidnate2 and romo guessed 9/11 fights correctly. Way to go guys!
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s eleven fights on MMAPredictions was 34% making this card way harder to predict than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties. We rarely see cards that are so unpredictable here on MMAPredictions. Interestingly, the average of those predictors from the UK was just 32.8%, right in line with the whole population’s average. You may think that being local to the fights would make it easier but such was not the case tonight.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: John Hathaway’s victory over Marvin Arnold. Ninety-seven percent of predictors got this fight correct.

Most surprising fight outcome: Ya know, it’s kinda funny. Eighty-three percent of folks thought Ryan Shamrock would beat Giorgio Andrews. They were all wrong. Want to know the second most surprising fight outcome? Ken Shamrock’s loss to Buzz Berry! Eighty-one percent of folks were wrong on that one.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com: Dream Lightweight Grand Prix Heiwa from Japan. Not all of the fights have even been announced yet on that one, but there will definitely be some surprises on the way. In fact, we don’t even know Mirko Crocop’s opponent yet! Stay tuned!

- Caleb

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Sengoku took place in Japan today. Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions for the Japanese event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 271 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Predicting all of the fights correctly was easy for many people. Lots of 100%-ers on this one.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s ten fights on MMAPredictions was 64.3%, making this card more predictable than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Josh Barnett’s victory over Hidehiko Yoshida was correctly predicted by 99% of predictors on MMAPredictions.com. Unbelievable. One of these days we are going to have to start giving some kind of award to the promoter who consistently gives us the most predictable fights.

Most surprising fight outcome: None. That’s right, there was not one upset on this card, and the majority of our predictors got every fight correct on this MMA fight card. (For the sake of being as comprehensive as possible in this analysis, I will mention that the fight between Ryo Kawamura and Antonio Braga Neto was apparently a very difficult fight to predict, as both received 50% of our users’ confidence. Kawamura won by the way.)

Next up on MMAPredictions.com: Cage Rage 25 from London. Lots of fights on that card. Good luck!

- Caleb

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How often is it that you get a fight that is so hard to predict? Last night’s UFC 82: Pride of a Champion was headlined by one of those dream fights where you just don’t know what is going to happen. Here on MMAPredictions.com, exactly 50% of our predictors thought Dan Henderson was going to win, and 50% thought Anderson Silva would win (the latter group was correct, as Silva landed a rear naked choke on Henderson 8 seconds before the end of round two).

Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions for tonight’s event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 531 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Five people correctly predicted the winners of all ten fights. More on that below!
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s ten fights on MMAPredictions was 62.8%, making this card more predictable than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: This was kind of a close one. Three fights on this card were correctly predicted by more than 90% of our predictors! In the end though, the fight where the most predictors got the fight correct was Jon Fitch’s victory over Chris Wilson. Ninety-eight percent of predictors got this fight right. However the two percent who voted for Wilson were on to something, as Fitch was not able to finish Wilson and it ended up going to the judges, who decided unanimously for Fitch.

Most surprising fight outcome: Heath Herring’s split decision victory over Cheick Kongo. Only 35% of predictors thought Herring would win.

Okay so on to the contest to see who won a copy of Chuck Liddell’s new book Iceman: My Fighting Life! You’ll remember that the winner of the book would be drawn at random from the predictors who guessed every fight correctly on UFC 82. As mentioned above, it turns out that only five folks guessed all ten fights correctly:

1. einux
2. spideynhb
3. tlear
4. sandiegokid
5. louis3554

Consulting a nearby random number generator (a girlfriend sitting on the couch doing her grad school homework was asked to pick a number from one to five) provides us with the winner of the Chuck Liddell book: einux! Congratulations einux, I will be in touch with you shortly to get that book to you!

So, as you will remember, I made a bet with the cohost of MMAPredictions Radio Luis that if Dustin Hazelett won tonight, he’d buy me a shirt from BustedTees.com. However Josh Koscheck beat Hazelett by strikes at 1:24 of the second round, and so now I owe Luis a t-shirt. This is not the first time I have lost a bet to Luis, and probably won’t be the last.

Next up on MMAPredictions.com: This crazy Sengoku card on Wednesday night. The full card is not yet listed here on MMAPredictions but I will have that done tomorrow. I will post a note in our MMA Fight Card Changes & Updates thread in the forum notifying that the final group of fights is ready to predict.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday,

- Caleb

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Amidst a furious news cycle this week in the world of mixed martial arts, the International Fight League held its IFL - Las Vegas show. At the last minute the event’s billing was changed from including Team Xtreme Couture to Team Tompkins due to a court injunction prohibiting the use of Couture’s name. However Randy Couture’s gym claims that the IFL had chosen fighters that were not of Randy’s gym in any case.

Leopoldo Serao unsuccessfully attempts a rear naked choke on Josh Haynes. Photo courtesy IFL.

Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions for tonight’s event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 254 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• Several folks here on the site came close and just missed one fight, but not one user guessed all seven fights correctly.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s seven fights on MMAPredictions was 46.9%, making this card less predictable than most fight cards here on the site, which tend to be in the low fifties.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Eighty-seven percent of our predictors correctly guessed that the previously undefeated Roy Nelson would maintain his streak against Fabiano Scherner, allowing him to retain his heavyweight belt with a victory just past the halfway mark of the first round.

Most surprising fight outcome: Ryan McGivern’s victory over Matt Horwich surprised just about everyone. Only 12% predicted that McGivern would win, whose performance earned him the judges’ approval after five rounds of action.

Next up on MMAPredictions is UFC 82 which will feature Dan Henderson against Anderson Silva!

- Caleb

Win a copy of Chuck Liddell’s new book by predicting UFC 82! Details here!

SHOWTIME’s broadcast of EliteXC: Kimbo vs. Tank did not disappoint those who expected the fight between Kimbo Slice and Tank Abbott to be a quick one. The fight lasted just forty-three seconds, in which the cinderblocks attached to the end of Kimbo’s arms made quick work of Tank Abbott, the fighter from a bygone era of mixed martial arts.

Kimbo Slice connects a punch on Tank Abbott’s chin. Image courtesy EliteXC.

In other action:

• Yves Edwards defeated Edson Berto by flying knee at 4:56 of the first round.
• Kyle Noke was on the receiving end of Scott Smith’s right handed scud missile and was knocked out seven seconds into the second round.
• Antonio Silva defeated Ricco Rodriguez by unanimous judges’ decision after three rounds.
• Brett Rogers knocked out the lights of Englishman James Thompson at 2:24 of round one.

Here is how our predictors performed here on MMAPredictions for tonight’s event, which you can see by going to the card’s detailed results page.

• 347 MMAPredictions users predicted on tonight’s card.
• As is the case on cards that do not have many fights like this one, many users predicted every fight on the card correctly.
• The average of all our users’ prediction accuracies for the card’s ten fights on MMAPredictions was 61.9%, which is more predictable than our site’s overall accuracy of 53.3%.

Most easily-predicted fight outcome: Yves Edwards’ win over Edson Berto. Ninety percent of our users picked this fight outcome correctly.

Most surprising fight outcome: Brett Rogers’ defeat of James Thompson. Sixty-five percent of our users thought Thompson would win, but they were wrong. Interestingly, this is the only fight on the card that the majority of predictors guessed incorrectly.

Next up on MMAPredictions is Strikeforce at the Dome, which takes place on February 23rd!

- Caleb

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